CFS Monetary Measures for February 2025

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for February 2025. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.5% in February 2025 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining the same growth rate as in January.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Feb25.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Congratulates Dr. William A. Barnett, Whose Work has been Recognized as a Top Cited Article

We are delighted to share that “The Credit-Card-Services Augmented Divisia Monetary Aggregates”, published in “Journal of Money, Credit and Banking”, is among the top 10 most-cited papers published by the journal in 2023. Congratulations to the authors – Professor William A. Barnett (CFS director of Advances in Financial and Monetary Measurement), Marcelle Chauvet, Danilo Leiva-Leon, and Liting Su.

You can find the paper at
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jmcb.13088

CFS Monetary Measures for January 2025

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for January 2025. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.5% in January 2025 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.4% in December.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jan25.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

President Trump Claims Authority Over Independent Agencies

In a new Executive Order, President Trump asserted presidential oversight over all federal agencies, including independent agencies.

The EO states that “all executive power” is vested in the President under Article II of the US Constitution and directs agencies to submit draft regulations for White House review, with no exceptions for independent agencies other than the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy functions. The EO mandates that agencies consult with the White House on strategic plans and performance standards.

President Trump asserted that “so-called independent agencies” such as the FTC and SEC exercise “enormous power over the American people without Presidential oversight.” He further said that these agencies: (i) “issue rules and regulations that cost billions of dollars and implicate some of the most controversial policy matters, and they do so without the review of the democratically elected President” and (ii) “spend American tax dollars and set priorities without consulting the President, while setting their own performance standards.”

The EO requires the Office of Management and Budget to adjust independent agencies’ apportionments to ensure tax dollars are spent “wisely.”

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

It is hard to assess the practical significance of this EO; i.e., how much it could change behavior at the regulators. Historically (meaning before the Biden-Gensler era at the SEC and the Obama-Gensler era at the CFTC), the SEC and the CFTC acted in a fairly non-partisan manner, meaning that it was somewhat unusual to have rules or enforcement actions approved by the majority party of the Commissioners over the dissents of the minority party. (There were exceptions to this, such as the SEC’s approval of Reg NMS, over the dissent of the two Republican Commissioners, including and then Commissioner, expected soon-to-be Chair, Paul Atkins, but these were exceptions, not the ordinary course.)

During Mr. Gensler’s tenure at the SEC and the CFTC, unanimity was the exception, and party-line votes the ordinary course. If there is now a shift in the SEC’s priorities (to be consistent with the views of the Republican rather than the Democratic party), that shift is entirely consistent, from a political standpoint, with how the SEC and other “independent” agencies have acted for the past four years.

There is one power that the minority party will continue to have—the power to issue dissents. SEC Commissioners Peirce and Uyeda, and CFTC Commissioner (later Chair) Giancarlo wrote dissents that were meaningful and helped to keep the majority party honest. To that end, independent agencies might consider expanding the staffs that are delegated to each of the non-Chair Commissioners, so that the minority Commissioners have more resources at their disposal to dissent. An enhanced ability to issue public dissents might do more to strengthen the independence of the agency than does the continued pretense that the majority Commissioners operate “independently” of the President. 

Primary Sources

  1. The White House: Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Reins in Independent Agencies to Restore a Government that Answers to the American People
  2. The White House: Executive Order: Ensuring Accountability for All Agencies

New Book on Economic Bifurcation and Chaos

Professor William A. Barnett (CFS Director of Advances of Monetary and Financial Measurement) just published the book, Economic Bifurcation and Chaos, with co-author Ruoning Han. The span of research begins with Bill’s initial finding of chaos in economic data and follows with over 30 years of his research on bifurcation and chaos in economics with applications to central bank policy.

Nobel Laureate James J. Heckman notes that the book “is a guide to understanding the deep structural features of modern economics and how to account for them in policy analysis. This research imposes a new level of rigor on the field of macroeconomics that serves to make it more credible.”

Economic Bifurcation and Chaos is available in hardcover or e-book form (with the latter containing additional color graphics).
https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/13852#t=aboutBook
or Amazon. To receive a 25% discount at World Scientific until March 31, 2025, quote code BUS25.

CFS Monetary Measures for December 2024

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for December 2024. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.4% in December 2024 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.5% in November.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Dec24.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for November 2024

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for November 2024. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.5% in November 2024 on a year-over-year basis versus 3.1% in October.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Nov24.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Reissues Leland B. Yeager’s International Monetary Relations

The Center for Financial Stability is pleased to reissue Leland B. Yeager’s masterly International Monetary Relations: Theory, History, and Policy. First published in 1966, it appeared in a second edition in 1976, which has long been out of print. We are making the second edition available in an inexpensive electronic version on Amazon Kindle, as well as posting a facsimile scan of the print version. Here is the CFS home page for the book.

Leland B. Yeager (1924-2018) was a prominent economist of the 20th century. He spent most of his career at the University of Virginia and Auburn University. His main contributions in economics were in money, trade, and capital theory. He had wide-ranging interests that also included ethics and artificial languages, which he wrote about. Armaan Bahl, a student of CFS Special Counselor Steve Hanke, compiled an annotated bibliography of Yeager’s writings earlier this year.

International Monetary Relations was the book Yeager was best known for during his life. It was immediately recognized as being authoritative, innovative, and clearly written, qualities that occur together less often than they should in economics. The book remains worth reading today for its deft weaving of the strands of theory, history, and policy.

At his death, Yeager was working on a second magnum opus. He entrusted it to Steve Hanke for completion, and it was recently published as Capital, Interest, and Waiting: Controversies, Puzzles, and New Additions to Capital Theory.

CFS Monetary Measures for October 2024

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for October 2024. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.0% in October 2024 on a year-over-year basis versus 2.7% in September.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Oct24.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’