CFS Monetary Measures for March 2024

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for March 2024. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 1.3% in March 2024 on a year-over-year basis versus being roughly unchanged in February.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Mar24.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFPB Director Supports FDIC Policy Proposal on Bank Merger Review

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

CFPB Director Rohit Chopra argued that the FDIC’s proposed policy on bank merger review aims to restore “a comprehensive assessment of the impact on local residents and small businesses.”

In remarks before the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, Mr. Chopra stated that the Bank Merger Act of 1960 required banking regulators to consider three primary factors in the evaluation of bank mergers: the competitive effects of the merger, the financial and managerial resources and future prospects of the company and the convenience and needs of the community to be served. He said that the Supreme Court later emphasized that mergers should be evaluated based on their overall effect on the public interest.

Mr. Chopra argued that, over the years, the rigorous review process intended by the Act diminished, as regulatory agencies began relying heavily on the Community Reinvestment Act (“CRA”) rating as a proxy for assessing the merger’s impact on community convenience and needs. He said this approach was problematic because CRA ratings are backward-looking, evaluating how well banks have met community needs in the past, and may not accurately reflect how a merger would address the broader community’s future needs. According to Mr. Chopra, this shift away from a focus on the public interest created a gap, prompting community groups to negotiate directly with banks, despite lacking the authority to enforce agreements effectively.

Mr. Chopra argued that the FDIC’s proposed policy on bank merger review aims to “address [past] weaknesses and shift back to the original intent of the law by restoring a comprehensive assessment of the impact on local residents and small businesses.” (See related coverage.)

Key features of the proposed policy include:

Community Benefit: The policy mandates that bank mergers factor in the impact on the communities that the merger will affect. The burden of proof is on the applicant to provide actual evidence and if there is no clear benefit, the application can be denied.

Regulatory Accountability: If banks make certain representations or commitments in the application to demonstrate how the community will be better off, including by submitting a Community Benefits Agreement, these requirements may be considered formal conditions for approval.

Consideration of Branch Closures: The policy requires the agency to consider branch closures in the “convenience and needs” review, recognizing the importance of physical bank branches, especially for lower-income, older and rural households. Mr. Chopra argued that, over the past 15 years, regulators have too often ignored branch closures in the context of merger review citing data showing that since 2009, branches have decreased by 15% nationally, a trend driven by megamergers and large bank branch closures.

Compliance with Consumer Protection and Fair Dealing Laws: The policy considers the merging banks’ track record of compliance with laws designed to protect consumers and promote fair dealing. Mr. Chopra said that banks with histories of legal violations may face scrutiny, as mergers can amplify the potential for harm to consumers and businesses.

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

The legislative language authorizing the CFPB (Section 1101 of Dodd Frank) provides as follows:

There is established in the Federal Reserve System, an independent bureau to be known as the ‘Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection’, which shall regulate the offering and provision of consumer financial products or services under the Federal consumer financial laws.

It is not the job of the CFPB to regulate bank mergers. There is no doubt that many of the senior regulators in the government, including Mr. Chopra, are very intelligent, highly educated and have well informed views on subjects that extend outside of their realm of jurisdiction. Even so, when speaking to the public in their regulatory capacity, they really should stick to their day jobs. It is not the job of each regulator to remake the world. Perhaps bank mergers are closer to the CFPB’s day job, than climate change is to the job of the Federal Reserve Board, but they are both stretches.

FRB Governor Bowman Warns of Misplaced Regulatory Priorities

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman questioned whether “the volume of [banking regulatory] reforms that have been proposed, recently finalized, or that are in the pipeline … [reflects a loss of focus] on furthering the primary goal of prudential bank regulation and supervision.”

In a “Workshop on the Future of Banking,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Governor Bowman observed that regulatory responses to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank “have little relationship to the events surrounding the bank failures and ensuing banking system stress.” She highlighted two concerns: the stagnation of de novo bank formations and the restrictive approaches to bank mergers and acquisitions.

De Novo Bank Formation. Governor Bowman raised concerns over the decline in the number of U.S. banks and the stagnation in de novo formations over the past decade, in light of indications of unmet demand for banking services. She argued that the regulatory and supervisory framework, particularly the lengthy and uncertain application process for new charters and deposit insurance, poses significant obstacles to de novo bank formation. She said that current regulations contribute to delays, increase start-up costs and pose challenges for securing investment. She warned that regulatory expectations can be unclear and that the long-term absence of new bank formation risks (i) reducing the availability of credit, (ii) limiting financial services in underserved areas and (iii) pushing banking activities outside the regulated framework.

Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Governor Bowman raised concerns about the evolving approach to bank mergers and acquisitions which increases the potential for adverse impacts on the banking system. She said that proposed reforms could introduce delays, create uncertainty and impose new standards that may deter both de novo bank formation and healthy M&A activities. Further, she argued that the regulatory process itself is concerning, noting the prolonged regulatory timelines, the potential requirement to disclose concerns publicly for withdrawn applications and the possibility of regulatory demands not based on statutory requirements. She said that these factors (i) complicate succession planning, (ii) risk creating uncompetitive “zombie banks” and (iii) restrict the strategic options for growth and exit. She said that these factors threaten the dynamism and health of the banking sector.

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

Governor Bowman has been a consistent critic of what she believes are the failures of banking regulators to support new rules with a proper analysis of costs and of their failure to focus on those issues that should be matters of their primary focus (i.e. prudential bank regulation and supervision, rather than e.g. climate change.)

CFS Monetary Measures for February 2024

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for February 2024. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 0.1% in February 2024 on a year-over-year basis versus a decrease of 0.2% in January.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Feb24.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’