WSJ op-ed: “Trump Forces a Fed Guessing Game”

Today, The Wall Street Journal published an op-ed by Mickey Levy of the Shadow Open Market Committee (SOMC) member.

Mickey questions whether future rate cuts constitute the right monetary policy, highlighting how lower rates would present a dilemma for the Fed, as:

– Employment will be prioritized over price stability,
– Inflation is now further above its 2% target than it was below target in 2016-19, and
– Tariffs and immigration policy are under-cutting economic growth.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-forces-a-fed-guessing-game-8b5e7c18

New Book on Economic Bifurcation and Chaos

Professor William A. Barnett (CFS Director of Advances of Monetary and Financial Measurement) just published the book, Economic Bifurcation and Chaos, with co-author Ruoning Han. The span of research begins with Bill’s initial finding of chaos in economic data and follows with over 30 years of his research on bifurcation and chaos in economics with applications to central bank policy.

Nobel Laureate James J. Heckman notes that the book “is a guide to understanding the deep structural features of modern economics and how to account for them in policy analysis. This research imposes a new level of rigor on the field of macroeconomics that serves to make it more credible.”

Economic Bifurcation and Chaos is available in hardcover or e-book form (with the latter containing additional color graphics).
https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/13852#t=aboutBook
or Amazon. To receive a 25% discount at World Scientific until March 31, 2025, quote code BUS25.

WSJ letter: The Fed Needs to Change but Stay Independent

Former Fed Governor Robert Heller wrote an important WSJ letter “The Fed Needs to Change but Stay Independent” (see below).

In addition to Fed independence, Bob notes that “Where the Federal Open Market Committee has fallen short in recent years is by not focusing on the monetary and credit aggregates.” Our research and provision of monetary aggregates for over a decade supports his view (see “A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS” below).

His piece continues “one will look in vain to find the word ‘money’ in any of the decisions of the FOMC during the past three years.” Indeed, the Fed’s explanation of the failure of the SVB crisis neglected to utter the word “monetary” once in the combined 171 pages in the Barr report and the Fed’s IG study.

In the early stages of Covid, Charles Goodhart wrote a CFS paper (see “After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?” below). Here, he contrasted two strongly held, but competing views regarding the future path of inflation following recovery.

  • “A mainstream position suggested that inflationary pressures would remain muted for the foreseeable future.”
  • “In contrast, a contrary view believed that expansionary monetary and fiscal policies would generate inflation.”

Charles concluded that “apart from the important practical implications of finding out which of these positions is more nearly correct, it will affect macroeconomic theory and teaching, perhaps forever.”

We now have sufficient evidence to show why money and credit needs to be incorporated into the Fed’s policy calculus.

The Fed Needs to Change but Stay Independent
https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-fed-monetary-independence-trump-cc314765?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos8

A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS
https://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Money_Story_060623.pdf

After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?
https://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Goodhart_Deflation_Inflation_081420.pdf

FRB Governor Bowman Warns of Misplaced Regulatory Priorities

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle W. Bowman questioned whether “the volume of [banking regulatory] reforms that have been proposed, recently finalized, or that are in the pipeline … [reflects a loss of focus] on furthering the primary goal of prudential bank regulation and supervision.”

In a “Workshop on the Future of Banking,” hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Governor Bowman observed that regulatory responses to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank “have little relationship to the events surrounding the bank failures and ensuing banking system stress.” She highlighted two concerns: the stagnation of de novo bank formations and the restrictive approaches to bank mergers and acquisitions.

De Novo Bank Formation. Governor Bowman raised concerns over the decline in the number of U.S. banks and the stagnation in de novo formations over the past decade, in light of indications of unmet demand for banking services. She argued that the regulatory and supervisory framework, particularly the lengthy and uncertain application process for new charters and deposit insurance, poses significant obstacles to de novo bank formation. She said that current regulations contribute to delays, increase start-up costs and pose challenges for securing investment. She warned that regulatory expectations can be unclear and that the long-term absence of new bank formation risks (i) reducing the availability of credit, (ii) limiting financial services in underserved areas and (iii) pushing banking activities outside the regulated framework.

Bank Mergers and Acquisitions. Governor Bowman raised concerns about the evolving approach to bank mergers and acquisitions which increases the potential for adverse impacts on the banking system. She said that proposed reforms could introduce delays, create uncertainty and impose new standards that may deter both de novo bank formation and healthy M&A activities. Further, she argued that the regulatory process itself is concerning, noting the prolonged regulatory timelines, the potential requirement to disclose concerns publicly for withdrawn applications and the possibility of regulatory demands not based on statutory requirements. She said that these factors (i) complicate succession planning, (ii) risk creating uncompetitive “zombie banks” and (iii) restrict the strategic options for growth and exit. She said that these factors threaten the dynamism and health of the banking sector.

Commentary by Steven Lofchie

Governor Bowman has been a consistent critic of what she believes are the failures of banking regulators to support new rules with a proper analysis of costs and of their failure to focus on those issues that should be matters of their primary focus (i.e. prudential bank regulation and supervision, rather than e.g. climate change.)

The Experience of Free Banking

Much of what economists tell each other and the public about the nature and necessity of central banking lacks historical grounding. The Experience of Free Banking, just issued in a free, enlarged second edition by the Institute of Economic Affairs in London, discusses the extensive historical experience of monetary systems with competitive provision of currency. Such systems spanned more than 60 countries and hundreds of years up until the mid 20th century. Most were stable and showed no inherent tendency toward or need for establishing a central bank.

The first edition of the book was issued in 1992 by an academic publisher, and was priced accordingly. This expanded edition, in which I have three chapters, will be available in hard copy for those who prefer physical books, and is free in PDF here.

No free banking systems exist today, but the experience of free banking is relevant to today’s debates about privately provided cryptocurrencies, central bank digital currencies, and financial regulation. It presents a challenge both to economic theory and to the way economists and historians have continued to write financial history. They have generally ignored rather than addressed the ideas and facts that research in free banking has raised over the last generation. A notable exception is CFS Advisory Board member Charles Goodhart, whose 1988 book The Evolution of Central Banks remains the most serious and comprehensive answer on the pro-central banking side.

Readers who find want to know more about free banking can start with the bibliography by Elizabeth Qiao, here. The introduction contains a short list of suggested readings. At the time she compiled the bibliography, Qiao was a student of CFS Special Counselor Steve Hanke.

FT: “Learning British Financial Stability Lessons. Seriously!”

Today, the Financial Times‘ Robin Wigglesworth released a well-researched article “Learning British Financial Stability Lessons.  Seriously!” – which covered CFS reports – https://on.ft.com/3ZZ8Rpc

CFS will put a finer point on on aspects of the reports in two upcoming events.

Please take a look at this article and our papers, which can be found on CFS’ website- www.CenterforFinancialStability.org.

CFS Releases New Reports on Banking Stress and Monetary Policy

A group of senior advisors to the Center for Financial Stability – Sheila Bair (Chair), Joyce Chang, Charles Goodhart, Lawrence Goodman, Barbara Novick, and Richard Sandor – undertook an assessment of the root causes of recent bank failures.

The work was done with a keen eye on present and future financial system stresses.  For instance, bond market losses continue; bank earnings remain under pressure; cumulative Fed rate hikes are now 525 basis points; the fiscal deficit is now $600 billion deeper in the red than last year; and bank stocks remain at or near post crisis lows.

The group represents a wide array of backgrounds in government, academia, and industry and a full range of policy views. While there were differences of opinions on some specific proposals, there was also strong consensus on the main drivers of the failures and key issues related to proffered reforms.

Later in the week, Randal Quarles (CFS Advisory Board Chair) will lead panel discussions with the authors on the reports’ findings.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view
“The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Recent Bank Failures”
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/CFSMonPaper101623.pdf

“Supervision and Regulation after Silicon Valley Bank”
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/CFSRegPaper101623.pdf

Extinguished Consumer Surpluses: CFS money supply measures

Wall Street Journal reporter, Rachel Louise Ensign, wrote a terrific piece on the consumer yesterday – “Americans Finally Start to Feel the Sting from the Fed’s Rate Hikes.”  The story highlights how:

– “Consumers… are discovering that, because of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, their money gets them a lot less than it would have a few years ago.”

– “Consumers are carrying much higher [credit card] balances than they were two years ago.”

Interestingly, CFS Divisia M2 reveals another core issue regarding the sting from higher rates and tighter policy.  Swollen consumer surpluses in the aftermath of the essential post-Covid fiscal and monetary response are now extinguished.

To view “Extinguished Consumer Saving Balances – CFS Divisia M2, actual and predicted
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Extinguished_Balances_20230927.pdf

Note: The CFS Divisia M2 measure of consumer liquidity includes currency, demand deposits, other liquid deposits, and retail money market funds.

The Federal Reserve needs to stay put on rates

Today, the Financial Times published Sheila Bair’s Opinion piece noting that:

– The Fed should feel vindicated in its decision to pause rate rises at its policy-setting meeting last month.  Although it seems poised to raise them again, the Fed should stay put.

– If the Fed does raise rates again, it could temper the impact by only raising rates on bank reserves, while leaving the rate it pays to money market funds and other non-bank financial intermediaries where it is.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://on.ft.com/3QatT1l

Sheila Bair is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Financial Stability.

A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS

At the Center for Financial Stability (CFS), we see the world differently. We see the world through monetary goggles – not at the exclusion of other variables, but from a different perspective.

Since 1) inflation proved to not be transitory after the post-pandemic fiscal and monetary response and 2) inflation remained negligible after the big money supply increases in 2009 to 2010, our perspective is essential for:

  • Officials to strengthen the financial system while more effectively promoting growth and
  • Investors to safeguard assets, manage financial institutions, or seek profits.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

Next week, CFS will release a paper on “Empirical Lessons for the Fed from Banking Instability.”

To view the full article:
https://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Money_Story_060623.pdf