Monthly Archives: August 2021

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2021

Posted on by

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2021. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 3.9% in July 2021 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.4% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul21.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Bair on Finance for Kids

Posted on by

CFS Advisory Board Member Sheila Bair is now the author of a new series of entertaining children’s books about money called “Money Tales.”

She notes that “kids ‘get money’ at an early age, and we need to feed that inquisitiveness. Over 70% of student borrowers say they wish they had better information about debt and its burdens when they decided to borrow, and over half wish they had not borrowed at all.” She wants to make sure future generations of borrowers are better prepared.

Sheila has a hidden past as a children’s book writer. She was recognized by the Council on Economic Education, Association of Educational Publishers, JumpStart Coalition, and the Institute for Financial Literacy for her efforts to teach kids and their parents about money basics.

On September 15, the new Money Tales series will include:

Billy the Borrowing Blue-Footed Booby
https://www.amazon.com/Billy-Borrowing-Blue-Footed-Booby-Money/dp/0807508128
Princess Persephone Loses the Castle
https://www.amazon.com/Princess-Persephone-Loses-Castle-Money/dp/0807566470

Her first two books, Rock, Brock and the Savings Shock and Isabel’s Car Wash, published 15 years ago, continue to sell well.

They are available for pre-order now on Amazon, for yourselves, your friends, or anyone you know with children or as donations to schools or libraries.

Barnett Keynote on BREXIT at UK Conference on Uncertainty, Risk Measurement and COVID-19 Challenges

Posted on by

CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett delivered the keynote lecture “Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?”

Bill’s remarks explore:

  • Why is Brexit changing economic risk without a source of external shocks?
  • Mathematical properties of chaos with relevance to BREXIT and U.S. monetary policy.
  • Why chaos is not necessarily bad. It is normal in nature (weather, climate, etc.) and is relevant to science and economics. Chaos contains useful information.
  • The United Kingdom and United States economies have undergone significant structural and policy changes in the past decades rendering chaotic dynamics more relevant.
  • Meaningful policy implications stem from the existence of Shilnikov Chaos.
  • Shilnikov chaos, produced by interest rate feedback policy with sticky prices, explains the downward drift of interest rates over the past 20 years.
  • Interest rate feedback policy rules need to be augmented by simultaneous use of a second policy instrument focused on the long run to avoid unintentional downward drift of interest rates to their lower bound.

For the slide deck…
http://www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/speeches/UK_bifurcation_Barnett.pdf
For the lecture…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W2URCxL5owU&ab_channel=KUDepartmentofEconomics%20

FT Letter: Investors shouldn’t bet too much on macro forecasts

Posted on by

Today my letter in the Financial Times (FT) responds to Howard Marks’ “Investors must not bet too much on macro forecasts.”  Marks offers a superb road map for navigating future inflation twists and turns.

However, he misses how macro rules of nature can often be measured – helping investors and public officials better achieve their respective goals.

Monetary measurements represent simply one meaningful mapping.

To view “Inflation was inevitable after the Fed fuelled monetary growth”:
https://www.ft.com/content/2f7f1bad-ed6b-4a6a-9123-0eb024541c8a

We look forward to any comments you might have.

CFS Monetary Measures for June 2021

Posted on by

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2021. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.5% in June 2021 on a year-over-year basis versus 7.0% in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun21.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’