FRB Governor Tarullo Advocates for Broader Capital and Liquidity Regulations

Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo suggested that the U.S. central bank may have plans to “reshape” capital regulation for some large insurance firms, as well as for other financial market participants, including asset managers. As to insurance companies, due to a state-by-state implementation of the current U.S. rules for the insurance sector, Mr. Tarullo argued that the rules fail to make distinctions between traditional insurance firms and those that could pose risks to the broader economy. In light of the weaknesses exposed during the financial crisis, Mr. Tarullo stated that it is important to recognize that while some insurance products are not likely to play a role in a financial meltdown, other firm activities, such as derivatives, are more entangled with the financial system.

Further, Mr. Tarullo claimed that differences in the liability side of the balance sheet provide a good policy justification for having varying capital requirements even among the same types of financial intermediaries (that is, that different insurance companies might be subject to differing capital rules). He argued that “traditional capital regulation, with an implicit aim of protecting only conventional policyholders over time . . . does not reflect the balance risk sheets” of more complex insurance firms. He suggested that implementation of stricter rules would likely target big wealth-management or annuities businesses, rather than property insurers.

Mr. Tarullo then discussed the possible adoption of an integrated capital and liquidity regulatory regime, emphasizing his belief that insufficient regulatory attention has been paid to liquidity requirements, particularly to dependence on short-term wholesale funding.

Additionally, Mr. Tarullo discussed entities other than banks and insurance companies that would be appropriate targets of capital/liquidity regulation. In his view, broker-dealers present the “clearest case” for becoming subject to additional liquidity requirements.

Near the beginning of his speech, Mr. Tarullo conceded that “we should remind ourselves that the capital regulation of private corporations is unusual.” However, by the end of his speech, Mr. Tarullo indicated his support for the imposition of “prudential market regulation” on asset managers and rules about liquidity requirements and redemption limits on funds.

Lofchie Comment: Ultimately, Mr. Tarullo argues for a degree of governmental control over both public and private capital that is unprecedented both in its scope, but also in its subjectivity; i.e., government regulators creating rules that might be applicable to a single institution. Even if one were to believe that the government is capable of exercising as much wisdom as Mr. Tarullo seems to believe (on what basis?), one should be uncomfortable with conceding to the government as much power as Mr. Tarullo would have it take. In fact, it is not clear that there is any limit to the power that Mr. Tarullo would have the government assert over private investment and asset allocation decisions so long as he could argue that the government was acting in the public interest.

In this regard, it is somewhat telling that Mr. Tarullo feels it necessary that “we should remind ourselves that the capital regulation of private corporations is unusual.” Perhaps it is a such a good reminder that he ought to repeat it to himself several times a day.

Five Things to Watch for as the Federal Reserve Makes its Rate Hike Decision

Reporter James Puzzanghera interviewed CFS President Lawrence Goodman for an article published in today’s Los Angeles Times.

In “Five things to watch for as the Federal Reserve makes its rate hike decision”, Mr. Puzzanghera discusses the potential outcomes of today’s decision by Central bank policymakers. At 11:00am Pacific Time (2:00pm Eastern Time), the Fed will announce if the time has come for an increase, nearly a decade after the last increase in the benchmark federal funds rate.

While some experts do not believe a rise in interest rates would be constructive, others argue removing the questions about when the Fed would raise the rate would do more for financial stability, particularly in the long-term, than holding steady. “It’s this deep uncertainty surrounding the conduct of monetary policy that is exacerbating swings in financial markets,” said Lawrence Goodman, a former Treasury official who is president of the Center for Financial Stability think tank.

To read the complete article please go to http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-federal-reserve-interest-rate-five-things-to-watch-20150917-story.html.

Chairman Fischer Discusses Lessons from Financial Crises

Speaking at the International Monetary Conference in Toronto, Canada, Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (the “FRB”) Stanley Fischer discussed lessons he has learned from the financial crises of the last two decades.

Drawing from three academic papers the Chairman published in 1999, 2011 and 2014 while working at the International Monetary Fund, the Bank of Israel and the FRB, respectively, Chairman Fisher discussed the following lessons:

  • Negative Interest Rates – Contrary to pre-Great Recession economic theory, central banks may use monetary policy to reduce interest rates below zero, although perhaps not much below minus one percent;
  • Active Fiscal Policy – Fiscal policy “works well, almost everywhere,” and can likely be made more expansionary at low real cost by borrowing to finance public works;
  • Financial Stability – The United States should experiment with using monetary policy (i.e., the interest rate) to address financial stability, in addition to macroprudential tools;
  • Moral Hazard – Resolution procedures for “too big to fail” financial institutions must permit equity and bond holders to lose all or most of the value of their assets; and
  • Continued Supervision – The United States must not allow successful reforms to breed complacency, and must continue to disincentivize bad conduct by, e.g., punishing individuals “severely” for misconduct personally engaged in.

Bitcoin Needs Smart and Safe regulation (Roll Call)…

My recent opinion piece for Roll Call explores how the advent of virtual money – such as bitcoin – may be another ground-breaking chapter in the history of finance.

Yet, digital currency is a murky and high-risk industry, since it operates outside regulatory bounds.

So, it is essential that we create a forward-looking and largely hands-off regulatory environment that does not stifle the entrepreneurial energies that drive this industry.

To view “Bitcoin Needs Smart and Safe Regulation”:
http://blogs.rollcall.com/beltway-insiders/bitcoin-needs-smart-and-safe-regulation-commentary/?dcz=

WSJ features CFS monetary analysis and data…

This morning’s Wall Street Journal features CFS views and data in “Shadow-Credit Rise Is Good Sign” by Michael Casey on page C3.

The article highlights how CFS data on market finance or “shadow banking” can measure the durability of the recovery and help frame the policy debate in a balanced way.

A few highlights include:

“Seven years after the financial crisis, lending in the so-called shadow-banking system finally appears to have bottomed out, a reversal that could presage a long-awaited uptick in U.S. economic growth.”

“Extrapolations from CFS data show that the level of market finance is significantly below where its post-1967 trend would predict. In other words, a great deal of expansion is needed to bring this market back even to a level projected by its prebubble state. Until then, shadow banking will continue to do far less of the heavy lifting in credit creation than it used to.”

For the full article “Shadow-Credit Rise Is Good Sign,” please see page C3 of this morning’s paper or view http://www.wsj.com/articles/shadow-credit-rise-is-good-sign-1427071556.

State of the International Financial System: House Committee on Financial Services Hearing

The U.S. House Committee on Financial Services announced a full committee hearing titled “The Annual Testimony of the Secretary of the Treasury on the State of the International Financial System.” The hearing is scheduled for March 17, 2015.

It will be informative to see how Secretary Lew assesses backdoor currency wars (see pages 2, 9, and 10 of the New York Society of Security Analysts presentation).

FRB Governor Powell Speaks Against Proposals to Limit Fed’s Independence

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“FRB”) Governor Jerome Powell spoke out against “misguided” proposals to place limits on the Federal Reserve’s (the “Fed’s”) ability to respond to financial crises. He delivered his remarks at the Catholic University of America.

In particular, Governor Powell criticized three types of “misguided” proposals – namely, to:

  • “audit the Fed” (i.e., subject the Fed’s conduct of monetary policy to congressional auditing);
  • require the Fed to adopt and follow specific equations for setting monetary policy, and to face immediate congressional hearings and investigation by the Government Accountability Office whenever it deviates from such policies; and
  • restrict the Fed’s discretion in providing liquidity facilities during financial crises.

Governor Powell argued that such criticisms of the Fed are misleading, since the Fed is “open and transparent” in its operations and “extensive and effective” in its implementation of monetary policy as determined by Congress. Governor Powell also argued that the costs of restricting the Fed’s independence would outweigh any corresponding benefits, given the substantial positive effects of the Fed’s control of monetary policy on the U.S. economy as a whole.

See: Governor Powell’s Speech.

 

Does math support euro survival?

CFS asked the question “Does math support euro survival?” on December 5, 2011.

Based on a quantitative approach to evaluate the relative competitiveness of nations, our view was “yes” – the euro can and should survive.

However, Greece and Portugal remain serious outliers. Their implicit currencies require serious economic adjustment or issuance of a new drachma and escudo.

Euro Components: CFS Synthetic Currency Valuations

CFS synthetically developed real effective currencies for eleven major nations within the euro. Real exchange rate movements and currency valuations for individual euro nations help answer three fundamental questions.

– Did member nation exchange rates enter the euro at an appropriate level?
– Since entry into the euro, did the unified rate hinder or help international competitiveness and growth?
– To what extent are euro members threatened by relatively overvalued currencies – or near levels consistent with currency crises in emerging market economies?

For the full report: http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/LG_Euro_120511.pdf

New! Hyperinflation Book by CFS…

Despite the recent slip in inflation, many ponder a future of unexpectedly higher or more volatile inflation in the wake of extraordinary monetary measures over the last six years. While the Center for Financial Stability (CFS) is clearly NOT anticipating a return to runaway inflation, analysis of hyperinflation reveals lessons worth active study for public officials, investors, and the interested public.

CFS is delighted to release “Studies in Hyperinflation & Stabilization” by Professor Gail Makinen with a foreward by Thomas J. Sargent, co-recipient of the 2011 Nobel Prize in Economics.

Hyperinflation imposes heavy economic costs and undermines political and social stability – especially in emerging and frontier markets. Similarly, study of the evolution and stabilization of hyperinflation offers lessons to strengthen monetary and financial stability in advanced economies (For specific lessons)

Despite fears over the last few years regarding a surprise increase of inflation, CFS has warned against these concerns – based on the results of our Divisia monetary and financial data developed under the leadership of Professor William A. Barnett.

Best wishes into the holiday season and 2015.

Lawrence Goodman

Otmar Issing on Germany in the FT…

Former ECB Board Member and Honorary Committee Member at Bretton Woods 2014 Otmar Issing penned a thoughtful piece in the FT on why arguments for Germany to prime the fiscal pump are faulty in Blame Germany for bad policies, not its reluctance to spend more.

The story is especially noteworthy as France and the European Commission continue to lock horns regarding the budget for 2015 (see Paris defends budget amid EU irritation).  Prime Minister Manuel Valls noted that “We decide the budget.”   On speculation that the commission will demand a review, he noted… “That’s not the way it happens. France should be respected. It’s a big country.”