About Kurt Schuler

Kurt Schuler, co-editor of The Bretton Woods Transcripts, is Senior Fellow of Financial History at the Center for Financial Stability and an economist in the Office of International Affairs at the United States Department of the Treasury.

Australia at Bretton Woods

Selwyn Cornish and I have a CFS working paper out on “Australia’s Full Employment Proposals at Bretton Woods: A Road Only Partly Taken.”

At the Bretton Woods conference, Australia proposed that full employment be a primary goal of international economic cooperation. Australia’s ideas were connected with its historical experience: three enormous financial and economic shocks in the two generations before Bretton Woods that disrupted employment.

The United States in particular opposed Australia’s proposals. They did receive a hearing after Bretton Woods, but never became part of the fabric of international economic cooperation. Happily for Australia, since Bretton Woods it has avoided shocks of the magnitude it experienced in the two generations before. Australia’s proposals remain of interest, though, both because many countries are still far from full employment and because the Bretton Woods institutions have become involved in labor market reforms as part of broader structural economic reforms in member countries.

The paper takes advantage of the knowledge of Australian archives that Selwyn Cornish has built up over the course of his career, which includes a longtime position as the official historian of the Reserve Bank of Australia. I presented the paper at a conference about Bretton Woods held at Yale University in November. A revised version will likely appear in a volume springing from the conference, to be published by Yale University Press. Selwyn and I welcome comments, which we will consider for incorporation into the revised version.

The Money Makers

Eric Rauchway’s new book The Money Makers: How Roosevelt and Keynes Ended the Depression, Defeated Fascism, and Secured a Prosperous Peace will interest most of you who read this blog. The economic parallels between the 1930s and recent years are more instructive than we may care to admit.

Eric Rauchway is a professor of history at the University of California-Davis. He spoke at the CFS conference at Bretton Woods last year, giving a foretaste of some of the material in the book. The subtitle gives a pretty complete idea of what the book is about. Franklin Delano Roosevelt is first in the subtitle as he is dominant in the book. Rauchway is determined to rescue FDR’s reputation from former advisers who had their own agenda to promote when they wrote, years later, that FDR was a dilettante with no real understanding of monetary policy. Rauchway argues that FDR had coherent ideas and that his policy on the gold standard through the whole of his administration was well considered both in its economics and its politics. Rauchway points out that FDR made some formal study of economics as a student at Harvard; that well before his presidential bid he showed interest in monetary questions; and, perhaps most important of all, he was open to ideas and sources considered unorthodox, such as the Cornell University professor George Warren Pearson.

As one who is no expert on FDR but who has worked for two politicians, I have observed that politicians rarely have the time or inclination to become expert on the arcana of monetary theory and policy. However, the astute ones—and FDR was a superlatively astute politician—have an ability to rank issues, examine varying views on them more open-mindedly than many experts (because they are less attached to particular approaches), and gauge whether public opinion on them is ripe for change. FDR came into office facing economic catastrophe, and he found a way out that worked.

A generation later, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz would argue that the Federal Reserve bore a large measure of blame for the Depression, and that different policy by the Fed would have avoided deflation and limited the downturn to being an ordinary recession. Over the course of another generation, other economists would come to accept their argument. In 1933, FDR did not have the luxury of waiting for those conclusions and he lacked control of the Fed. The gold policy was the one tool at his disposal. I think Rauchway exaggerates the depth of FDR’s monetary thought, but he is correct that FDR’s gold policy—which jolted the American economy back to life—showed a high level of strategic thinking. The advisers who later branded FDR a dilettante misunderstood that he was in reality an experimenter, willing to be unorthodox and eclectic because the times called for experimentation.

What FDR gave with one hand, though, he partly took away with the other. Many of the regulatory policies of the New Deal hampered recovery, working against the benefits of appropriately loose monetary policy. As with the responsibility of the Federal Reserve for creating or at least greatly aggravating the Depression, Rauchway glosses over the clumsiness of New Deal regulation and the harm it did.

The book really shines in its weaving of the interplay between monetary policy, wider economic policy, domestic politics, and geopolitics. The Depression was more than an economic calamity: it threatened to cast the world political order into the flames. FDR understood the dangers posed by aggressive dictatorships and the role that economic policy could play in helping contain them in peace and winning the fight against them in war. Rauchway assesses the interplay between the economic and political forces of the time more judiciously than any previous account I have read.

I will not discuss Keynes, who also appears in the book’s subtitle, because here both Rauchway and I have less to say that might be new to you, though it will be new to the average reader. Suffice it to say that, as with the material on Roosevelt, it ably assesses both the economics and the politics of the time.

Did I mention that Rauchway can really write? He has an ability to keep different narrative threads clear through the warp and woof of events. He also has a knack for crisp summary (example: in 1944 “The United Nations was still very much a notion; so too were many of the nations in it” under German or Japanese occupation.)

The book is pleasing to the eye and to the hand. I have only one complaint for the publisher: having met Eric Rauchway in person, I can attest that the jacket photo does not do him justice. Something to be corrected for the paperback edition, perhaps.

World Bank Archives Online

The World Bank has begun to digitize its archives and place them online. I have used the archives a couple of times, and though the staff have been helpful, the hours are limited, one must wait for materials to be delivered, and for people outside of Washington the trip is expensive and time-consuming. So, bravo! I expect little additional material of interest on the Bretton Woods conference to turn up, because of what is already in the IMF Archives. Eventually, though, there will be miles of files for scholars interested in studying how economic development and aid evolved after World War II.

50,000 More Dates

No, not at Match.com, but at Historical Financial Statistics. Our apparently unique calendar spreadsheet (accompanied by a detailed documentation file) shows dates from 1500 to the present according to ten calendars: Julian day number, Julian, Gregorian (the standard calendar for most of the world today), traditional Chinese, Ethiopian, French Republican, Hebrew, Islamic, Iranian, and Ottoman.

There are, however, some gaps. One that has just been filled concerns Chinese calendar dates during the Ming Dynasty (1341-1644). Keith Hazelton, an information technology guru, used his expertise to calculate the correspondence of dates between the Chinese calendar and Western calendars in an old research paper I only recently came across. He has kindly allowed Historical Financial Statistics to use his data.

Some other gaps remain. The Iranian (hijri) calendar was reformed in 1925, and mechanically extending the current rules backwards does not always give correct dates. The Hebrew calendar is complex, and I could only readily find dates in spreadsheet format since since the founding of the State of Israel. The Buddhist calendar is not shown at all in the spreadsheet because I could not readily find easily usable information on its correspondence to Western calendars. I would appreciate any information readers can offer to fill these gaps or to include other calendars that have been important in some part of the world over the last 500 years.

Historical Financial Statistics Takes a Leap Forward

CFS Historical Financial Statistics has just added a substantial amount of new data. Annual data points now total about 150,000, while high-frequency data points exceed 2 million. Coverage extends to 150 countries, though the depth of coverage varies widely.

In the five years since Historical Financial Statistics went online, computers have become faster and have gained memory, so we have consolidated many formerly separate files into a small number of often quite large files, which make data easier to find and use. We have also streamlined the Web format of Historical Financial Statistics so that everything is now accessible from one page.

New data include the following:

  • Extensive financial statistics on Austria-Hungary and the Balkans from the 1800s to World War II, by scholars in the South-East European Monetary History Network (whose impressive work I previously discussed here).
  • Three centuries of British data, by Sally Hills, Ryland Thomas, and Nicholas Dimsdale.
  • Balance sheet data from many currency boards around the world from the mid 1800s to the present, gathered mainly by Nicholas Krus and me.
  • Government finance data for many British colonies in the 19th and early 20th centuries, by Ewout Frankema.
  • Wages in a number of African countries in the 19th and early 20th centuries, by Ewout Frankema and Marlous Van Waijenburg.

We expect to add some other large data sets later this year. By bringing together previously scattered data, Historical Financial Statistics makes possible novel comparisons and new insights.

The Morgenthau Diaries Are Online

Henry Morgenthau, Jr. was Secretary of the Treasury from 1934 to 1945, a period that of course included the 1944 Bretton Woods conference. Fortunately for historians, he was a compulsive chronicler. His collection of speeches, memos, transcripts of meetings, and other documents, termed the Morgenthau Diaries, runs to hundreds of volumes. They have been available for some years on microfilm, but at a price so high that few libraries have them. Now the diaries are are available for free online. They offer inside perspective on a tumultuous period of American and world history.

Morgenthau was the president of the Bretton Woods conference and the head of the U.S. delegation to the conference, and his diaries from that period (July 1-22, 1944) contain transcripts of many of the delegation’s meetings behind closed doors. The American delegates could be blunt in their private assessments, as these words from a July 1 meeting show:

MR. [Harry Dexter] WHITE: Those are the large countries. The smaller countries all want larger quotas. The most troublesome will be Australia, who is participating to an extent far beyond the proper role of a country of her size and importance. But they are going to insist on a larger quota and some other things that I suggested before.

Readers interested in Bretton Woods will find much to instruct and occasionally amuse them. Among other things, the diaries show clearly that Federal Reserve chairman Marriner Eccles, who is not recorded as having said a word in the conference sessions, was highly active behind the scenes.

At Bretton Woods the United States was at the zenith of its relative economic power, as the leading economy whose home territory was nearly untouched by the enemy. The attitude of the American delegation reflects its awareness of that fact. Reading the diaries, though, one must that remember that however fascinating they are, they are but a part of the story. What the Americans wanted was not always what transpired in conference, and their private scheming had counterparts in the private scheming of other delegations, which is less well recorded but which has recently received scrutiny from assiduous researchers.

(Hat tip to Eric Rauchway, who spoke at the 2014 CFS Bretton Woods conference.)

Dollarization in Ecuador Turns 15 Years Old

They said it couldn’t be done, then that it wouldn’t be done, and finally that it shouldn’t be done. It was done and they foresaw trouble. “It” was dollarization in Ecuador, which is now 15 years old. Unlike almost every other country in South America, Ecuador had never suffered a hyperinflation. In late 1999, though, it was on the brink of one, as a low price for oil (the country’s leading export), a banking crisis, and a central bank seemingly unable to get a grip on the situation created great distrust of the local currency, the sucre. Merchants started to post prices in dollars and people began to spend their sucres as fast as they could. In desperation, president Jamil Mahuad announced that Ecuador would eliminate the sucre and use the dollar as its official currency. Some Ecuadorian economists and business leaders had been making the case for dollarization for months, but the announcement was a surprise even to them.

Dollarization began to work immediately, despite much skepticism from international observers (quoted in this article by Steve Hanke, pp. 134-5). As it happened, I visited Ecuador just after dollarization was announced. Interest rates started dropping and the feeling of panic started receding immediately. There was worry about whether the economic situation was so bad that dollarization would make little difference over a longer period, but now it can be stated with confidence that dollarization did make a difference. By my calculations, it is the longest-lasting monetary policy Ecuador has had since the 19th century. It has persisted through an attempted coup, four peaceful changes of president, and a global financial crisis. Now the price of oil is again low, and it remains to be seen how Ecuador’s economy will adjust. But whether we are thinking about something as grandiose as a “new Bretton Woods” or as comparatively modest as monetary reform in one midsize country, let us not dismiss an idea simply because we do not think it is politically feasible at the moment. As the saying goes, a week is a long time in politics; certainly it was 15 years ago  in Ecuador.

Those who understand Spanish may be interested in an Ecuadorian site with material from a recent conference looking back at 15 years of dollarization.

Data from IMF Databases Now Available for Free

The International Monetary Fund has expanded the data it makes available for free online. In addition to its widely used and valuable but rather basic World Economic Outlook database, it has now added material from its eLibrary, which comprises a huge amount of additional data from International Financial Statistics, Balance of Payments Statistics, Government Finance Statistics, Direction of Trade Statistics, and Trade and Investment. Between the IMF eLibrary and the Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis’s FRED database, it is now possible to find easily for free what a few years ago would have been difficult, costly,  or impossible to find.

In the IMF eLibrary, the default time period seems to be approximately the last decade for annual data, but you can go far back by changing the start date to as early as 1900, though in my experience with IMF databases, 1948 has generally been the first year for data availability. The site requires free registration to make greatest use of its capabilities.

A Trove of Data on Currency Boards

With Nicholas Krus, I have written a book-length working paper called Currency Board Financial Statements. Spreadsheets accompanying the paper contain the digitized balance sheet data of currency boards from dozens of countries, both as raw data and in standardized form similar to what the International Monetary Fund does in its International Financial Statistics database. The paper itself gives information necessary to understand the balance sheets and some other aspects of the operations of the currency boards. (Fair warning: the details are often dull, and most readers will want to treat the working paper as they would an encyclopedia, dipping in here and there rather reading cover to cover.)

Data extend from as far back as the mid 1800s to as recently as 2013. For a number of currency boards we have monthly data on currency in circulation as well as annual balance sheet data. The paper fills a large gap in world monetary history. Currency boards have been widespread, existing in more than 70 countries, but their data have not hitherto been available in machine-readable form except for a few recently established cases. Our paper, while not complete, contains data on most of the major currency boards and many of the minor ones. We intend to update the paper as we accumulate further data.

The paper is jointly issued by the CFS and  the Johns Hopkins University Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise, one of whose directors is CFS Special Counselor Steve H. Hanke. Nick Krus, my coathor, has twin interests in music and economics. While doing much of the work on the paper as an undergraduate student at Johns Hopkins and a researcher at the Institute, he was also in a band that was good enough to go on tour. Currently he combines his interests in his work as an Associate Analyst at Warner Music Group in New York.

Historical Economic Data of South-Eastern Europe

The South-Eastern European Monetary History Network is a group of financial and monetary historians, economists, and statisticians established in April 2006 on the initiative of the Bulgarian National Bank and the Bank of Greece. It has just issued a big study, South-Eastern European Monetary and Economic Statistics from the Nineteenth Century to World War II.  The study supplies data for Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire/Turkey, and the Balkans. Data include (1) monetary variables, (2) interest rates, (3) exchange rates, (4) government finances, (5) prices, production and labor, and (6) national accounts and population. There is also some narrative economic history of each country. Most of the countries in the region previously had little historical data readily available. What had been nearly inaccessible in old books, newspapers, and archives, mostly in local languages, is now a click away on the Internet in English and in machine-readable form. Bravo!