CFS Monetary Measures for June 2014

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2014. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 2.4% in June 2014 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining the same rate as in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release:
http://www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun14.pdf

For more on Divisia methodology and past releases for the U.S.:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Is Inflation Targeting Still Relevant?

In his paper titled “Inflation Targeting: A Monetary Police Regime Whose Time Has Come and Gone,” David Beckworth calls on the Fed to advance beyond inflation targeting.

ABSTRACT

Inflation targeting emerged in the early 1990s and soon became the dominant monetary-policy regime. It provided a much-needed nominal anchor that had been missing since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. Its arrival coincided with a rise in macroeconomic stability for numerous countries, and this led many observers to conclude that it is the best way to do monetary policy. Some studies show, however, that inflation targeting got lucky. It is a monetary regime that has a hard time dealing with large supply shocks, and its arrival occurred during a period when they were small. Since this time, supply shocks have become larger, and inflation targeting has struggled to cope with them. Moreover, the recent crisis suggests it has also a tough time dealing with large demand shocks, and it may even contribute to financial instability. Inflation targeting, therefore, is not a robust monetary-policy regime, and it needs to be replaced.

ABOUT DAVID BECKWORTH

David Beckworth is a former international economist at the US Department of
the Treasury and the author of Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. His research focuses on monetary policy. Currently he is an assistant professor at Western Kentucky University.

Read the paper at http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/Beckworth-Inflation-Targeting.pdf.

SIFMA Publishes Recommendations to Enhance U.S. Equity Market Structure

SIFMA published a set of recommendations on equity market structure for “enhancing fairness, stability, and transparency” in the U.S. stock market. 

According to the press release, SIFMA has long called for a comprehensive review of equity market structure.  SIFMA stated that the recommendations are designed to “promote fair and timely access to market data, address the complexity and fragmentation caused by the current order system, and enhance transparency for retail and institutional investors.”

The recommendations include changes to current business practices, as well as proposals for regulatory reform, and fall under three areas: (i) promoting fairness in market data dissemination, (ii) addressing market complexity and fragmentation, and (iii) encouraging robust transparency and disclosure for both retail and institutional investors. 

The featured recommendations include that:

  • access fees charged by exchanges should be dramatically reduced or eliminated;
  • regulators should eliminate the requirements for broker-dealers to connect to trading venues that do not add substantial liquidity to the market;
  • all users of market data should have access to data at the same time;
  • regulators should direct brokers to provide public reports of specific order-routing statistics and metrics; and
  • over time, the central SIP structure should be replaced with multiple processors that would distribute public market data and compete on performance and costs to better serve the marketplace. 

Lofchie Comment: Market structure is largely a creature of market regulation rather than market forces, since both the revenue of the exchanges (see the first bullet above) and the number of exchanges (see the second bullet point above) essentially are the products of SEC regulation.  Allowing market forces more space to be forceful almost certainly will reduce the number of exchanges, as smaller exchanges will no longer be viable unless firms are forced to trade on them.

See: SIFMA Equity Market Structure Recommendations; SIFMA Press Release.

 

Senate Banking Committee Hearing on HFT and Market Structure

The Senate Banking Committee held a hearing titled “The Role of Regulation in Shaping Market Structure and Electronic Trading”. Panelists discussed the regulation of high-frequency trading and offered proposals for technology improvements.  Witnesses at the hearing included representatives from exchanges and other financial institutions, including Citadel LLC, Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and BATS Global Markets, Inc. 

In general, panelists agreed that high-frequency trading should not be banned, and that technology provides significant benefits to the equity markets. They advocated for increased transparency and disclosure regarding order routing practices and dark pool operation.

Lofchie Comment:  Panelists offered a variety of suggestions for addressing high frequency trading and market structure issues. A number of the proposals advocated for very significant changes in the securities markets and securities regulations including eliminating or reducing the role of the securities exchanges as regulators. There were also advocates for reducing tick sizes on securities with substantial liquidity, eliminating maker-taker fees and imposing trade-at rules.

Given the diversity of views, it would seem prudent for the SEC to consider a series of empirical tests of various trading regulations before determining how to amend our current trading rules. In this regard, it may be worthwhile for the SEC to delay launching its test of expanding the tick size rule for small stocks until it can design a more comprehensive program of experimenting with various sets of trading rules. (See commentary on running empirical tests.)

See: Senate Banking Committee Press Release; Archived Webcast of the Hearing

 

Trade Associations Submit Letter to Senators Regarding Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2014

SIFMA, the American Bankers Association, and the Financial Services Roundtable (the “Associations”) submitted a letter of support to Chairwoman Feinstein and Vice Chairman Chambliss of the Senate Intelligence Committee regarding the June 17, 2014 draft of the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act of 2014 (the “Act”). 

In the letter, the Associations stated that the Act “strengthens the ability of the private sector and the Federal government to work together to develop a more effective information sharing framework to respond to cyber threats.” The Associations asserted that the draft version of the Act provides liability and anti-trust protections, while balancing privacy protections. 

Additionally, the Associations provided detailed comments identifying issues that require further clarification.

See: Letter; Press Release.

 

Future of Computer Trading Report

CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart highlights a report by the Foresight Committee of the UK Government Office of Science on the Future of computer trading in financial markets: an international perspective. Professor Goodhart was a lead expert in the group overseeing the Project.

The key aim of the Project was to assemble and analyze the available evidence concerning the effect of High Frequency Trading (HFT) on financial markets.

Professor Sir John Beddington (Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government and Head of the Government Office for Science) notes that:

“Analysis of the available evidence has shown that computer-based trading (CBT) has several beneficial effects on markets, notably relating to liquidity, transaction costs and the efficiency of market prices. Against the background of ever greater competition between markets, it is highly desirable that any new policies or market regulations preserve these benefits. However, this Project has also highlighted legitimate concerns that merit the close attention of policy makers, particularly relating to the possibility of instabilities occurring in certain circumstances, and also periodic illiquidity.”

For the full report or an abridged version click:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/future-of-computer-trading-in-financial-markets-an-international-perspective

The Economist on “The 70-Year Itch”

In The Economist this week, there is a terrific article The Bretton Woods agreements: The 70-year itch.  Highlights include:

– America learned the benefits of economic co-operation the hard way. Its failure to create institutions to help steer the world economy after the first world war exacerbated the Great Depression and paved the way for the next conflagration.

– Yet today’s pre-eminent powers seem to have forgotten this lesson.

– If John Maynard Keynes were alive, he would sigh not just at the risks in all this economic nationalism but also the huge missed opportunity. Perhaps it is time to send another group of dignitaries to New Hampshire.

The full article is at http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21606280-both-west-and-china-are-neglecting-institutions-help-keep-world-economy

The piece is similar to my Forbes column Lessons from the Summer of 1944.

The full column can be viewed at http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/06/06/lessons-from-the-summer-of-1944/

Review of Two New Books on Bretton Woods

(The following review, for the economic history site EH.net, is reprinted with their permission, and the copyright provisions specified there apply.)

Ed Conway, The Summit: The Biggest Battle of the Second World War, Fought Behind Closed Doors. London: Little, Brown, 2014. xxvi + 454 pp. £25 (hardcover), ISBN: 978-1-4055-2930-3.

and

Eric Helleiner, Forgotten Foundations of Bretton Woods: International Development and the Making of the Postwar Order. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2014. xii + 304 pp. $40 (hardcover), ISBN: 978-0-8014-5275-8.

Two books have appeared just in time for the seventieth anniversary of the Bretton Woods conference. Edmund Conway’s The Summit is a popular account of the conference by a financial journalist, while Eric Helleiner’s Forgotten Foundations of Bretton Woods is a political scientist’s examination of a little explored angle of the conference: the role of what we now call emerging market countries.

Conway, economics editor of the British cable television channel Sky News, set out to write an overview incorporating material that has come to light since Armand van Dormael’s 1978 book Bretton Woods: Birth of a Monetary System. (Benn Steil’s The Battle of Bretton Woods [2013] is an interpretation of the conference according to a master theme rather than an overall account, as I will explain later.)[1] We now have additional reminiscences by delegates; declassified archival material such as the Venona files detailing Soviet espionage in the ranks of U.S. Treasury officials; and full transcripts of many committee meetings at the conference.

Conway writes in a lively style. (Example: “As far as [Keynes] was concerned, the [International Monetary] Fund should be regarded as a kind of economic health spa. There should be no stigma associated with going to it for help: all countries should be entitled — nay, encouraged — to do so at some point. For White, however, the Fund was Accident and Emergency — countries should only be wheeled in if close to complete economic collapse” p. 171.) In addition, he has done some original research that will ensure a niche for his book in the scholarly literature. For example, in the Russian archives he found a number of documents that illustrate Soviet perceptions of Bretton Woods. The Soviet Union was active and often obstreperous at the Bretton Woods conference. It signed the Bretton Woods agreements but later decided not to join the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank), in part because it did not want to divulge the economic data required of IMF members.

Because the book is intended for readers who may know nothing of Bretton Woods, many of you reading this review can comfortably skip the early chapters, which provide background, and start with the British delegation’s ocean voyage to America. Conway vividly conveys the atmosphere both of the voyage and of the Atlantic City conference that preceded Bretton Woods and developed the drafts from which the Bretton Woods delegates worked.

At the heart of The Summit is of course the account of the Bretton Woods conference itself. (The title, by the way, is a triple reference to Bretton Woods as an important international gathering, a high point in economic diplomacy, and a location within sight of the highest peak in the northeastern United States.) Conway devotes a substantial chapter to each of the three weeks of the conference. He gives an overall idea of the course of negotiations and, again, of the atmosphere in which delegates worked, but omits minute details that are more appropriate to books aimed at narrower audiences.

The final chapters describe the later life of the Bretton Woods agreements, beginning with controversies on the way to their ratification in the United States and in Britain. In the United States some experts got worked up about the agreements, but as Conway relates, the public was apathetic; with World War II still raging, the subject was too abstruse to arouse passion. In Britain, the country’s largest newspaper fiercely criticized the agreements, but the enormous parliamentary majority of the new Labour Party government meant that it could pass into law anything it wanted.

Throughout the book Conway focuses on the personality traits of the players. Economists and political scientists often write as if impersonal interests dominate and personalities make little difference; journalists, diplomats, and historians know better. As a case in point, the turnover of lower-level officials after Harry Truman succeeded Franklin Roosevelt as president quickly led to changes in actual or prospective policies, including abandonment of the Morgenthau Plan to reduce Germany to an economic backwater after the war and the idea of locating the IMF and World Bank in New York rather than Washington. Conway’s book will not be, and is not intended to be, the authoritative academic account of Bretton Woods, but it is a useful addition to previous accounts.

Eric Helleiner, a professor of political science at the University of Waterloo (Canada), calls into question the prominent line of thinking about Bretton Woods that it was an American, and to a lesser extent a British, production, with other countries having little impact. Benn Steil is in this vein, interpreting Bretton Woods as a nearly unvarnished exercise in power politics. Steil focuses on the animosity of many American officials toward Britain and the ways in which they tried to use Bretton Woods and the Lend-Lease negotiations to diminish British postwar influence. Steil shares the view Keynes privately expressed, which likened the delegates from most other countries at Bretton Woods, particularly those from the poorer countries — what  we would now call emerging markets — as denizens of a “monkey house,” raucous and useless.

Helleiner’s library and archival research incorporate sources previously absent from English-language scholarship on Bretton Woods. His writing lacks Conway’s journalistic panache but conveys clearly ideas that other social scientists would have clotted with needless jargon. Helleiner finds antecedents to Bretton Woods, incidents at the conference, and events afterwards to indicate greater importance for the emerging markets than has hitherto been acknowledged.

The opening chapters focus on American attitudes toward emerging markets, documenting how Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal and his Good Neighbor policy towards Latin America changed the approach of the U.S. government toward international financial issues. U.S. officials became more sympathetic to the concerns of emerging market officials on matters of exchange rate choice, exchange controls, commodity price stabilization, industrial protectionism, and, to a lesser extent, debt default. The remaining chapters discuss Bretton Woods as viewed from the perspective of Latin American, Asian, and Eastern European governments, with a sidebar on how British official attitudes about economic development did or did not fit into the picture.

Helleiner’s implicit claim is that by the time of Bretton Woods, the ideology of the Roosevelt administration, and the experience of the 1930s, made the U.S. government more comfortable with “developmentalist” ideas (my term, not Helleiner’s) than at any time before and possibly since. Helleiner discusses the abortive Inter-American Bank as a dry run for the IMF and especially the World Bank. It was to have been a government-owned multilateral financial institution, with weighted voting, lending both to ease short-term balance of payments problems and to promote long-term economic development. The United States was to have provided the largest share of funds for it, but the U.S. Congress failed to approve the charter, so the project died. An echo of it exists in the Inter-American Development Bank, established in 1959.

Two other important examples of changing U.S. official attitudes toward Latin America were the U.S. government advisory monetary missions to Cuba in 1941-42 and Paraguay in 1943-44. They were much friendlier to developmentalist ideas than the semiofficial U.S. monetary doctor Edwin Kemmerer had been when he had advised many Latin American and other countries in the 1920s. Latin American governments responded favorably to what they saw as greater recognition by the United States of their sovereign dignity. The motives of the United States were not purely disinterested: it wanted to keep Latin America out of the Nazi orbit. U.S. officials were solicitous about involving their Latin American counterparts in their international plans from an early stage, choosing the January 1942 Rio de Janeiro Conference to announce their interest in planning for the postwar financial order.

In return, Latin American governments were generally supportive of the U.S. plans, though they proposed and received some changes to support their interests. At Bretton Woods, they and the other emerging markets secured agreement that the World Bank would focus equally on reconstruction and development, as opposed to its original stronger focus on reconstruction. With regard to the International Monetary Fund agreement, Latin American countries got a provision expected to benefit commodity exporters, instructing the Fund to take into consideration exceptional requirements of borrowing countries. The IMF agreement also was tolerant of the multiple exchange rates that existed in a number of Latin American countries at the time.

(Here I must mention a misconception that pops up in discussions of Latin American countries at Bretton Woods. They were the largest regional bloc, but their influence was less than their numbers. The conference proceeded mostly by consensus, avoiding formal votes on contested issues where possible, because a contested agreement rammed through by majority vote would have jeopardized the support of the United States, the major source of funds. The United States, in turn, could not simply dictate terms because the IMF and World Bank would have lacked legitimacy had they been viewed as little more than fronts for U.S. policies.)

East Asia was represented at Bretton Woods only by China and by the Philippines, the latter still an American colony but scheduled to become independent soon. Helleiner calls attention to Sun Yat-Sen’s book International Development of China, a pioneering effort in what later came to be called development economics. It had a strong influence on subsequent Chinese thinking about economic development and some influence abroad. Before Bretton Woods, China submitted its own plan for the IMF, alongside the British, American, Canadian, and French plans. It has been neglected by most historical accounts, including the IMF’s official history.[2] At Bretton Woods, China got a clause inserted into the World Bank agreement allowing that in special circumstances, the Bank could make loans not tied to specific projects, hence promoting overall development goals.

India’s delegation at Bretton Woods, a mixture of Britons and Indians, effectively represented India’s particular interests even though India was still a British colony. The overall attitude of British officials toward developmentalist ideas was lukewarm, a result in part of Britain’s fragile war finances and the knowledge that resources Britain could command through its empire would be greatly reduced if the colonies were to have more local control of their economic policies. Keynes was more developmentalist than the British consensus. He had, for instance, suggested as early as 1913 that India should have a state-owned central bank with a development focus, and he was critical of the idea, eventually adopted, to establish a currency board in Burma after it separated monetarily from India following World War II.[3]

Delegates from Eastern Europe were, naturally, keenly interested in the IBRD’s reconstruction role, but the Polish delegation appreciated the case for development lending given that Eastern Europe other than Czechoslovakia could be seen as a backward region.

In the final chapter, Helleiner traces the subsequent fate of developmentalist ideas at the IMF and IBRD. The Cold War had the effect that what came to be called the Third World was, as its name implied, low in international status. Today, though, with the Cold War past and emerging markets accounting for roughly half of world output, “echoes of the Bretton Woods development discussions have begun to be heard once again” (p. 276).

Notes:
1. Van Dormael is a retired businessman turned amateur historian, Conway is a journalist, Steil is an economist, and Eric Helleiner is a political scientist. Professional historians are notable by their absence from deep study of Bretton Woods, although Eric Rauchway, a professor at the University of California-Davis, has a forthcoming account.

2. J. Keith Horsefield, The International Monetary Fund 1945-1965: Twenty Years of International Monetary Cooperation, 3 volumes (Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 1969).

3. The countries whose monetary reforms Helleiner discusses — Paraguay, Cuba, Burma, Ethiopia — have not been known for long-term monetary stability under the central banks that all eventually established. Might they in fact have been better off with more rigid monetary authorities?

Kurt Schuler, an economist, is Senior Fellow in Financial History at the Center for Financial Stability in New York. He is the editor, with Andrew Rosenberg, of The Bretton Woods Transcripts (2012).

Who Was at Bretton Woods?

In a new CFS paper released on July 1st, Mark Bernkopf and I offer a nearly complete list of the people who attended the 1944 Bretton Woods conference as delegates, secretarial staff, or journalists. There were roughly 700 people listed among several documents in the conference proceedings published in 1948 and the unpublished telephone directories issued during the conference.

In addition to the people directly concerned with the work of the conference, there were a number of Boy Scouts who helped distribute documents and move microphones, plus military messengers and police. None are listed in any document we have seen, though. Additionally, there were of course the staff not only of the Mount Washington Hotel, where the conference was held, but of three other hotels nearby that accommodated overflow boarders. The Bretton Arms Inn, within walking distance of the Mount Washington Hotel, is still in existence, while the more remote Crawford House and Maplewood Hotel no longer exist.

Mark Bernkopf, my coauthor, established in the 1990s what may have been the first Web site on central banking generally as opposed to the sites of particular central banks. It has since been superseded by other sites to which it served as an example and a spur, especially the “Central bank hub” section of the Bank for International Settlements site. After I found Mark’s site and contacted him by e-mail to ask him a question about it, we found that we lived within walking distance, and struck up a lasting friendship. A stint at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York before he established the Web site contributed to Mark’s interest in both the practice and history of central banking.

Read Who Was at Bretton Woods?.

FIA and FIA Europe Issue Special Report on Transparency

The Futures Industry Association (“FIA”) and FIA Europe submitted the ninth and final Special Report in a series covering specific areas of the ESMA consultation process for the implementation and recast MiFID II and MiFIR.  The final Special Report provides an overview of the proposals relating to transparency, set out in the recently published ESMA Discussion Paper and Consultation Paper

According to the Special Report, transparency is a theme that permeates the primary legislation and the ESMA Discussion Paper.  The Discussion Paper covers topics including (i) pre-trade and post-trade transparency requirements for equities; (ii) pre-trade and post-trade transparency requirements for non-equity instruments; and (iii) the systematic internalizer regime; and (iv) the definition of a “liquid market”, which is a key component of the transparency provisions.

Additionally, the ESMA Consultation Paper has eight sub-sections on transparency, spanning over 30 pages and analyzing, among others: (i) liquid markets for equities; (ii) the systematic internalizer regime; and (iii) pre-trade transparency requirements for systematic internalizer in non-equity instruments.

The Special Report on transparency briefly outlines these issues. 

See: FIA Special Report: “Transparency”
Related news: FIA Issues Special Report: “Defining High Frequency Trading” (June 25, 2014).