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Research, Policy Papers and Books

Research Notes and Views |  Policy Papers and Presentations |  Opinions and Editorials |  Books

Research and Policy PapersThe CFS research agenda is developed in conjunction with the Board of Advisors, yet research practices and conclusions are independent.

Research Notes and Views

The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Recent Bank Failures, October 16, 2023

Supervision and Regulation after Silicon Valley Bank, October 16, 2023

Markets and Volatile Monetary Policy: Empirical Lessons from Banking Instability, June 12, 2023

A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS, June 6, 2023

Falling Money and the Fed, January 31, 2023

The Ponzi Bubble in China's Property Market is Deflating, March 11, 2022

Two Measures for the Fed and Investors, November 2, 2021

Now, Inflation is Clear and Global, July 14, 2021

New Money Growth and Inflation, June 4, 2021

Post-Pandemic Economic Risks, May 5, 2021

Inflation Fears Offers the Fed a Chance to Modernize with Money, April 26, 2021

Bubbles, Quantities and Short Sales, February 17, 2021

Robinhood and GameStop: Essential Issues and Next Steps for Regulators and Investors, February 04, 2021

After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?, August 14, 2020

CFS Survey of Investors, Bankers, and Academics: Corporate Bond Market Liquidity and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), May 13, 2020

Inequality Perils from Lower Interest Rates, December 16, 2019

The Monetary Policy Challenge, November 25, 2019

Reflections on Bretton Woods, October 17, 2019

Monetary Policy Realities Facing the ECB, Fed and BoJ: More Easing Won't Stimulate Economies, July 29, 2019

CFIUS and Silicon Valley: We're Still Trying to Find a Cure!, January 10, 2019

Financial Industry Transitions, November 29, 2018

Crisis Detection and Prevention, "The 10 Years After" the financial crisis, 2018

The Federal Reserve System's Weekly Balance Sheet since 1914 (Accompanying Spreadsheets), July 2018

Discussion on Central Banking and “Unelected Power: The Quest for Legitimacy in Central Banking and the Regulatory State” with Paul Tucker, May 17, 2018

Toward the Mid-21st Century Global Financial System, December 6, 2017

Improving the SEC's Enforcement Program: A Ten-Point Blueprint for Reform, August 17, 2017

One Belt One Road and Opportunities, July 6, 2017

Preventative Macroprudential Policy: Treasury Liability Management, May 31, 2017

Unsolved Problems in Monetary Aggregation and Transmission, May 31, 2017

Congress Can Help the Fed, December 6, 2016

This Age of Global Capital Market Wariness, November 30, 2016

What is Wrong with Our Monetary Policy?, October 5, 2016

An Evaluation of the SEC's Delegation of Authority, September 20, 2016

White Paper: Market Structure Debate Principles, August 16, 2016

Why CFS Divisia Money Matters, Now!, July 8, 2016

An Evaluation of the SEC's Admissions Policy, July 7, 2016

The History and Future of Global Capital Markets, June 16, 2016

Crisis Detection and Prevention: Implications for Investors and Officials, March 23, 2016

From China: It's the ‘Never Befores,’ Stupid, February 28, 2016

Conversation on “America’s Bank: The Epic Struggle to Create the Federal Reserve” with Roger Lowenstein, October 27, 2015

The Unwind: What’s Next for Global Markets, May 27, 2015

Brief on "The Intrafirm Complexity of Systemically Important Financial Institutions", May 14, 2015

Flawed Math on Student Loans, May 5, 2015

Liquidity Shortage: Houston, We Have a Problem, February 25, 2015

Shriveling Shadow Banking Limits Liquidity and Damages the Economy, November 19, 2014

Mexico's Role at Bretton Woods: An Assessment 70 Years Later, September 4, 2014

Summary and Next Steps, September 4, 2014

Thoughts on World War II in July 1944, September 4, 2014

Future Prospects for the World‘s Foreign Exchange Rate System: Political Design vs. Evolution, September 3, 2014

Nice-Squared - Near an Internationally Cooperative Equilibrium, September 3, 2014

A Few Thoughts on the Current International Monetary System, September 3, 2014

Bretton Woods Reconsidered: The Dollar Standard and the Role of China, September 3, 2014

Marriner Eccles: Father of the Modern Federal Reserve, September 3, 2014

Critical Issues for the Bretton Woods Institutions, September 3, 2014

The 1944 Keynes Plan: An Idea Whose Time Has Now Returned?, September 3, 2014

What Have We Learned from Recent Research on Bretton Woods?, September 2, 2014

Who Was at Bretton Woods?, July 1, 2014

Emotion Is No Substitute for Evidence: An Essay on the Lack of Prosecutions of Wall Street Executives Stemming from the Financial Crisis, March 27, 2014

End of the Free QE Lunch, February 19, 2014

A Path to Positive Debt Workouts, January 27, 2014

Bank Capital Observations, January 13, 2014

Soft Spot for Financial Institutions and Economy, October 16, 2013

Feedback on “The Uneasy Case for Janet Yellen,” September 19, 2013

The Uneasy Case for Janet Yellen, August 13, 2013

The Fed’s Three-Legged Stool, July 17, 2013

The Supersized Fed Balance Sheet and the Future, June 19, 2013

Bubbles, Corrections, and the Fed, May 22, 2013

Growth Stalls and Shadow Banking, April 17, 2013

Tracking the Housing Market, March 27, 2013

Fed Policy Drives Equities, March 20, 2013

Goodbye Liquidity Trap, February 20, 2013

New Fed Targets and Money, January 16, 2013

QE3 and Markets, December 19, 2012

Shadow Banking and the Fed, November 21, 2012

Money, Elections, and the Fed, October 17, 2012

The Financial State of the Union, September 20, 2012

Fiscal Distortions and Financial System Stress, September 19, 2012

Policy Uncertainty and Regime Change, August 22, 2012

Trust, Transparency, and Financial Intelligence, August 7, 2012

Weak Economy and Flight to Save Haven Assets, July 18, 2012

Economic Slide and Clogged Financial System, June 20, 2012

The Euro, the Snake and the Drachma, May 14, 2012

Perils of Precedent: Threat to the Sovereign Bond Market, March 30, 2012

The Sovereign Crisis: When Debt is No Longer Risk Free, January 26, 2012

Does Math Support Euro Survival?, December 5, 2011

Basel III, Dodd-Frank, and Volcker Rule Unworkable, November 14, 2011

Some Observations About Basel II/III, November 11, 2011

Urgent Course Correction: Lessons for Argentina and the US, November 2, 2011

Why Systemic Risk Considerations Affect the Market for Long-Term Care Insurance, October 26, 2011

Changing Inflation Won‘t Solve Budget Woes, July 26, 2011

Brief Thoughts on Debt Proposal for Greece, July 22, 2011

Budget Solutions: Then and Now, July 19, 2011

Solving the Greek Crisis, June 24, 2011

Survey of Two Dodd-Frank Problems: the Effective Date and the Definitions, June 14, 2011

Two Dodd-Frank Problems: the Effective Date and the Definitions
Contingency Planning in the Absence of a Regulatory Structure
, June 13, 2011

Fact Sheet: A Historic New 5Y TIPS Auction, April 20, 2011

Treasury Maturities: The Other Fiscal Problem, March 10, 2011

The New “International Currency System”, January 21, 2011

The Market for LTC Insurance and Systemic Risk, January 14, 2011

A Strategic Approach to QE: A Bad Trade, December 9, 2010

Uneven, Uncertain and Unusual Recovery, July 29, 2010

Hidden Risks from Expanding Governments, May 11, 2010

Some Concerns with the Derivatives Legislation, May 5, 2010

Central Bank Liquidity Swaps Overview, February 2010

Policy Papers and Presentations

How money metrics would improve Feb policy (View slides), March 15, 2023

Center for Financial Stability presents Patrick Harker, President of the FRB of Philadelphia, March 30, 2022

Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?, July 20, 2021

William Rhodes Remarks, Legion of Honor Ceremony Promotion to the rank of Commander, June 30, 2021

What Happens Next podcast - "Bubbles and Regulating Short Sales", February 14, 2021

Global Macro Drivers and Risk Management, June 18, 2020

Now What? Three Vectors for Investors and Officials, March 18, 2020

The Washington Consensus in History: An Interview with John Williamson, January 28, 2020

Global Financial Markets, China and the U.S., November 20, 2019

Summary Remarks / Shanghai Research and Development Foundation conference, November 19, 2019

Monetary Policy Paradigm Shifts, November 18, 2019

Lessons for Today from Bretton Woods Yesterday, November 13, 2019

Conclusion and Summary: Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System roundtable: 75 years after Bretton Woods, October 17, 2019

Just before Bretton Woods: The Atlantic City Conference, July 17, 2019

European Central Bank (ECB) Monetary Policy, July 17, 2019

Global Financial Crises 10 Years On - How Resilient Are We Now?, December 13, 2018

Creation and Evolution of New Markets: The Case of Interest Rate Benchmarks, November 2018

Central Banking East and West since the Crisis, October 15, 2018

Global Financial Crisis:Lessons for the Future, August 31, 2018

UK-US Financial Regulation: The Benefits of Greater Coherence, August 6, 2018

Risks, Prospects and Options Exiting the QE World, November 28, 2017

Global Macro Analysis, November 27, 2017

Market Implications from Unconventional Monetary Policies, September 5, 2017

Bretton Woods, Old and New: An interview with Professor Richard N. Cooper, September 15, 2016

Australia's Full Employment Proposals at Bretton Woods: A Road Only Partly Taken, November 16, 2015

Bitcoin and the Future of Payments Technology, February 11, 2015

Today’s Central Economic Challenges, November 21, 2013

Assessing Involvement of Central Banks in Financial Stability, May 23, 2013

Ideas for a Dashboard: Early Warning System, April 25, 2013

Perils of Precedent: Threat to the Sovereign Bond Market, March 30, 2012

Flash: Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure Reform, February 16, 2012

Federal Liquidity Options: Containing Runs on Deposit-Like Assets without Bailouts and Moral Hazard, January 24, 2012

Update: The Clearing Mandate in Dodd-Frank, Systemic Risk, and Competition, June 1, 2011

Presentation on Reducing Systemic Risk in OTC Derivatives Markets, September 23, 2010

The Dodd-Frank Act: From a U.S. Economy Perspective, September 23, 2010

Amending Safe Harbors to Reduce Systemic Risk in OTC Derivatives Markets, April 2010

Systemic Risk and the Tri-Party Repo Clearing Banks , February 2010

Opinions and Editorials

The Federal Reserve needs to stay put on rates, Financial Times, July 24, 2023

The Fed’s 'stress tests' overlook the dangers facing banks, Washington Post, July 11, 2023

Congress must act to protect smaller banks from investor nerves, Financial Times, May 9, 2023

US regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on Silicon Valley Bank, Financial Times, March 14, 2023

Sheila Bair: 'I feel for the regulators. You’re damned if you do and you're damned if you don't', Financial Times, December 15, 2022

The Fed must emulate the tactics of Volcker's fight against inflation, Financial Times, July 22, 2022

Inflation is a political challenge as well as an economic one, Financial Times, July 12, 2022

Russian Debt Default Could Become the Ukraine Conflict's Next Bargaining Chip, Barrons, May 11, 2022

Why were the Fed's inflation forecasts so wrong? It's not just the pandemic and greed., The Kansas City Star, May 4, 2022

How the Fed Rigs the Bond Market: Sales by "vigilantes" used to serve as a warning of inflationary policies. The signal has been muted., The Wall Street Journal, November 18, 2021

Democracy Is at Stake in the U.S. Debt Fight, Barron's, October 5, 2021

Inflation was inevitable after the Fed fuelled monetary growth, The Financial Times, August 8, 2021

Breakingviews - Guest view: Consider a debt for vaccines program, Reuters, March 09, 2021

Corporate Debt 'Relief' Is an Economic Dud, The Wall Street Journal, January 06, 2021

Value Investing and Monetary Policy, June 30, 2020

Letter: The faultlines of the crisis are complex and varied, The Financial Times, May 4, 2020

Issing: Memorandum on the ECB’s Monetary Policy, December 17, 2019

The Rates they are a changin': The world of new interest rate benchmarks, The Bond Buyer , November 20, 2018

The Fed's Misleading Money Supply Measures, Forbes, October 29, 2018

The National Debt Is a Bigger Problem Than You Think, The Fiscal Times , June 7,2017

It May Make the World Go Round, but What’s Money?, The Wall Street Journal, March 24, 2017

Focusing on Bank Size, Missing the Real Problem, The Wall Street Journal, April 1, 2016

Trump’s Right on Hacking, Wrong on Yuan, The Wall Street Journal, November 16, 2015

Fixing the Fed's Liquidity Mess, The Wall Street Journal, July 21, 2015

Bitcoin Needs Smart and Safe Regulation, Roll Call, May 1, 2015

A Bretton Woods Now Would Be Impossible, The Wall Street Journal, August 7, 2014

Lessons from the Summer of 1944, Forbes, June 6, 2014

Memo to Michael Lewis: The Excesses of High-Speed Trading Are a Direct Result of SEC Micromanagement, Forbes, April 29, 2014

Fed Needs to Speed Up Taper, Smooth Out Distortions, Forbes, March 19, 2014

IMF Debt Plan Would Worry Keynes, January 23, 2014

Federal Reserve Transparency: Should We Want It?, The Ripon Forum, Volume 47, No. 3, Summer 2013

Quantities Essential for Gauging Policy,The Financial Times, June 10, 2013

Better Growth Ahead: Money, Markets and the Fed, Forbes, January 30, 2013

Argentina’s Fudged Data Threatens Middle Class, Bloomberg View, January 23, 2013

Argentina Just Might Get Its Act Together, Forbes, January 10, 2013

Big Corporations Look Like Better Borrowers Than Uncle Sam, Forbes, November 9, 2012

Fed’s Current Stance is Tragically Wrong, Kansas City Star, November 6, 2012

The Fed’s Intertemporal Game, September 21, 2012

Demand for U.S. Debt Is Not Limitless, The Wall Street Journal, March 28, 2012

How to Contain a Financial Crisis Without Bailouts, Forbes, March 22, 2012

Argentina Could Halt Capital Flight Easily, The Wall Street Journal, January 20, 2012

Is What's Good for MetLife Good for Us All?, American Banker, October 28, 2011

Math for Europe: Lessons from Greece, October 4, 2011

The Chattering Classes’ Deadly Cocktail, Globe Asia, September 29, 2011

Emerging Markets, Argentina and Lessons for the US, September 16, 2011

Comment Letter to Regulatory Agencies on Risk Retention for CLOs, August 1, 2011

“Stronger” Banks, Weaker Economies, Globe Asia, August 2011

Straight Talk from a Practitioner: Notes from Under the Wall, Harvard Business Law Review, July 22, 2011

This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, CATO Journal Book Review, Winter 2011

Financial Overhaul Is Politics in Worst Sense: Richard Posner , Bloomberg Opinion, June 29, 2010

Comment on Tri-Party Repo Infrastructure Reform, June 15, 2010

Even IMF Lacks This Much Money, The Wall Street Journal, May 21, 2010

A Path for the FCIC, April 2010


Just Before Bretton Woods: The Atlantic City Conference, June 1944, The Atlantic City, New Jersey conference that occurred immediately before Bretton Woods has never received much attention until now.

Bretton Woods Monograph, The Center for Financial Stability gathered policy makers, financial market participants, and academics at Bretton Woods to better understand present challenges and offer solutions for the future.

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis in Retrospect: Causes of the Crisis and National Regulatory Responses 1st ed. 2019 Edition, by Robert Z. Aliber (Editor), Gylfi Zoega (Editor). This book addresses the causes and consequences of the international financial crisis of 2008. A range of esteemed contributors explore developments since 2008 in the United States as well as the smallest country affected, Iceland.

Global Shocks: An Investment Guide for Turbulent Markets, 2016 - CFS Senior Fellow Nicholas Sargen argues that investors who understand the common elements in crises have a better chance not only of surviving them, but ultimately of benefiting from them.

Wall Street, the Federal Reserve and Stock Market Speculation: A Retrospective, 2015 - In a new monograph published by the Center for Financial Stability, Professor Elmus Wicker provides historical insights on the interplay between the stock market and the Federal Reserve.  

Sustainable Investing and Environmental Markets
Opportunities in a New Asset Class
, 2014 - CFS Advisory Board member Richard Sandor and his co-authors provide a solid preliminary understanding of the promising and transformational new investment category of environmental assets.

Studies in Hyperinflation & Stabilization, 2014 - Gail Makinen and his coauthors examine 20th century hyperinflations: How did they happen? What were the consequences? How did they end? By pulling episodes together, the book throws light on common patterns of error and success in dealing with hyperinflations.

The Bretton Woods Transcripts, 2012 - CFS Senior Fellow in Financial History Kurt Schuler and CFS Research Associate Andrew Rosenberg offer the reader a front row seat at the conference that has shaped the international monetary system for nearly 70 years.

Good Derivatives: A Story of Financial and Environmental Innovation, 2012 - CFS Advisory Board Member Richard L. Sandor tells the story of how financial innovation has been a positive force in the last four decades. If properly designed and regulated, these “good derivatives” can open vast possibilities to address a variety of global problems.

Getting It Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the Financial System, and the Economy, 2011 - CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement William A. Barnett argues that too little use of the relevant economics, especially from the literature of economic measurement is to blame for the recent financial crisis and that better financial data could have signaled the misperceptions and prevented the erroneous systemic-risk assessments.

Fixed Income Securities: Tools for Today‘s Markets, third edition, 2011 - CFS Director of Financial Markets Research Bruce Tuckman provides the conceptual frameworks, quantitative tool-kit, and cash-flow and pricing conventions for fixed-income practitioners.

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2011 – CFS Advisory Board Member Goodhart tells the story of the early years of the Committee from its foundation in 1974/5 right through until 1997 and provides an assessment of its actions and efficacy.

The Crisis of Capitalist Democracy, 2010 — CFS Advisory Board Member Posner raises the question of the adequacy of our democratic institutions to the economic challenges heightened by the greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression.

Financial Stability Reports

CFS Rule of Law Index (RLI), November 15, 2011

What is the Role of a Financial Stability Report?, December 2009
View the most recent financial stability reports for 24 advanced and 36 emerging economies.