Professor William A. Barnett – CFS director of Advances in Financial and Monetary Measurement (AMFM) – questions “Why were the Fed’s inflation forecasts so wrong?”
He then addresses limitations in the modeling approach at the Federal Reserve and – more importantly – offers ideas for the future.
To view Bill’s opinion piece…
Today, Barron’s published an op-ed by CFS senior fellow David Beers titled “Democracy is at Stake in the U.S. Debt Fight.”
David discusses the ongoing struggle with deficits and the debt ceiling within the context of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) decision to become the first major credit rating firm to downgrade U.S. debt. At the time, David led S&P’s global team of analysts responsible for sovereign and international public finance credit ratings and research. He later worked on sovereign debt, IMF, China, and Euro Area policy issues for the Bank of England.
As noted in the piece, the opinions are the author’s alone.
Many points are worth further exploration, yet some may be viewed as political. CFS focuses on analytics. CFS is nonpartisan. Hence, we leave the politics for you to sort through.
The op-ed is excellent. It clearly illustrates drivers behind the deterioration in sovereign credit quality in the U.S. as well as other sovereigns around the world. In fact, going forward, economic management with a keen eye to these drivers can reverse the slide in credit quality.
To view the full article:
We look forward to any comments you might have.
Today, The Fiscal Times published my opinion piece on U.S. Treasury debt. Key ideas include:
– The debt situation is worse than commonly realized – when evaluated back to 1946.
– Fortunately, a few debt management policy tweaks can yield great benefit with limited costs.
– It’s our debt. It’s our problem. Let’s fix it.
To view the full article:
Yesterday staff on the House Financial Services Committee released a report critical of Treasury activities during the debt ceiling crisis. Treasury told Congress that the department was unable to prioritize debt payments to keep the government from violating its borrowing limit.
Of course, Treasury had the ability to prioritize payments. Emerging economies have done this for years!
The 322-page report includes documents received under subpoena highlighting table top exercises to precisely prioritize debt payments – http://financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/debt_ceiling_report_final_01292015.pdf.
I am quoted in Bloomberg’s “Inside the Fed’s `D-Day’ War Games for Breach of U.S. Debt Limit” – http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/inside-the-fed-s-d-day-war-games-for-breach-of-u-s-debt-limit.