CFS Monetary Measures for December 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for December 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 0.4% in December 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 1.0% in November.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Dec23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for November 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for November 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 1.0% in November 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 1.1% in October.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Nov23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for October 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for October 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 1.0% in October 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 1.7% in September.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Oct23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for September 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for September 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 1.7% in September 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 2.4% in August.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Sep23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Releases New Reports on Banking Stress and Monetary Policy

A group of senior advisors to the Center for Financial Stability – Sheila Bair (Chair), Joyce Chang, Charles Goodhart, Lawrence Goodman, Barbara Novick, and Richard Sandor – undertook an assessment of the root causes of recent bank failures.

The work was done with a keen eye on present and future financial system stresses.  For instance, bond market losses continue; bank earnings remain under pressure; cumulative Fed rate hikes are now 525 basis points; the fiscal deficit is now $600 billion deeper in the red than last year; and bank stocks remain at or near post crisis lows.

The group represents a wide array of backgrounds in government, academia, and industry and a full range of policy views. While there were differences of opinions on some specific proposals, there was also strong consensus on the main drivers of the failures and key issues related to proffered reforms.

Later in the week, Randal Quarles (CFS Advisory Board Chair) will lead panel discussions with the authors on the reports’ findings.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view
“The Role of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Recent Bank Failures”
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/CFSMonPaper101623.pdf

“Supervision and Regulation after Silicon Valley Bank”
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/CFSRegPaper101623.pdf

CFS Monetary Measures for August 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 2.2% in August 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 1.9% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Extinguished Consumer Surpluses: CFS money supply measures

Wall Street Journal reporter, Rachel Louise Ensign, wrote a terrific piece on the consumer yesterday – “Americans Finally Start to Feel the Sting from the Fed’s Rate Hikes.”  The story highlights how:

– “Consumers… are discovering that, because of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases, their money gets them a lot less than it would have a few years ago.”

– “Consumers are carrying much higher [credit card] balances than they were two years ago.”

Interestingly, CFS Divisia M2 reveals another core issue regarding the sting from higher rates and tighter policy.  Swollen consumer surpluses in the aftermath of the essential post-Covid fiscal and monetary response are now extinguished.

To view “Extinguished Consumer Saving Balances – CFS Divisia M2, actual and predicted
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Extinguished_Balances_20230927.pdf

Note: The CFS Divisia M2 measure of consumer liquidity includes currency, demand deposits, other liquid deposits, and retail money market funds.

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 1.9% in July 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 2.0% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for June 2023

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2023. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, fell by 2.0% in June 2023 on a year-over-year basis, following a decrease of 2.4% in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun23.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

The Federal Reserve needs to stay put on rates

Today, the Financial Times published Sheila Bair’s Opinion piece noting that:

– The Fed should feel vindicated in its decision to pause rate rises at its policy-setting meeting last month.  Although it seems poised to raise them again, the Fed should stay put.

– If the Fed does raise rates again, it could temper the impact by only raising rates on bank reserves, while leaving the rate it pays to money market funds and other non-bank financial intermediaries where it is.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://on.ft.com/3QatT1l

Sheila Bair is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Financial Stability.