Post BREXIT Risk Conference / Call for Papers

An important United Kingdom economics conference “Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement and COVID-19 Challenges” is being held online on June 22-23.  Call for Papers information is below.

CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett will be delivering a keynote lecture “Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?”

Other keynotes include:

David Aikman: Professor of Finance and Director of the Qatar Centre for Global Banking and Finance, King’s Business School, King’s College.
Patrick Minford: Professor of Applied Macroeconomics at Cardiff University.
Professor Jagjit Chadha: Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
Professor Costas Milas: Professor of Finance at the Management School, University of Liverpool.

The Call for Papers at the U. of Birmingham is at:
https://www.birmingham.ac.uk/schools/business/events/2021/post-brexit-uncertainty-risk-measurement-covid19-challenges.aspx

If you would like to submit a paper, the Call for Papers contains a link to another online page providing more details about the conference and instructions about deadlines and how to submit.  The conference will produce special issues of two journals (Economic Modeling, and European Journal of Finance).

The conference is open to the public with no registration fee.  The Call for Papers contains a link to the registration page.

FRED Publishes 100+ Years of CFS/Johns Hopkins Data on the Fed’s Balance Sheet

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, the premier source for free U.S. financial data, now includes data of the Federal Reserve System’s weekly balance sheet back to the Fed’s beginning in 1914. The data come from a paper and data set I compiled with five students of CFS Special Counselor Steve Hanke.

The students — Cecilia Bao, Andrew Chen, Nicholas Fries, Justin Gibson, and Emma Paine — were undergraduates who have all since graduated from Johns Hopkins University. As part of their work for Hanke’s course Research in Applied Economics, they wrote papers dividing the Fed’s history into three periods, with each paper using the corresponding data. I served as an adviser and outside reader. We then combined the data into one big data set.

Previously, some monthly balance sheet data from the Fed’s early years were digitized, along with full data from recent years. Full weekly data from the beginning, integrated with recent data, were however unavailable in any readily usable form. The students put in many hours digitizing the data, a task that any of thousands of professional economists could have done over the last 30 or even 50 years but none were enterprising enough to do.

Here is the announcement from FRED about the data set and here are the data series. For the original papers, see Chen and Gibson, Bao and Paine, Fries, and our joint paper. For the data from the joint paper, see here.

Thanks To A New Way Of Counting Money… This Is The Best Outlook For GDP In Years

My friend and former colleague, Raul Elizalde wrote a thoughtful piece for Forbes – “This Is The Best Outlook For GDP In Years, And We Know It Thanks To A New Way Of Counting Money.”

Raul nicely frames CFS Divisia and key issues in plain and direct language. He then offers his perspective on financial markets by incorporating CFS Divisia.

Raul is the founder, president, and CIO at Path Financial.

To view the full article:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/raulelizalde/2021/02/10/this-is-the-best-outlook-for-gdp-in-years-and-we-know-it-thanks-to-a-new-way-of-counting-money/?sh=b3a4983122c2

CFS Monetary Measures for December 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for December 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 28.9% in December 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 27.7% in November.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Dec20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for November 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for November 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 27.7% in November 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 28.1% in October.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Nov20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for October 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for October 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 28.3% in October 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.2% in September.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Oct20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for September 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for September 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.5% in September 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.7% in August.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Sep20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for August 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.8% in August 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 30.8% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 31.0% in July 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 31.3% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Goodhart on “Deflation or Inflation”

CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart offers thoughts on “After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?”  Charles is a member of the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics and a former member of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Topics include:

– Understanding the past.
– Assessing “low for longer” and “inflation is a monetary phenomenon?”
– Offering potential future pathways for prices.

For full remarks:
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Goodhart_Deflation_Inflation_081420.pdf