Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.8% in August 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 30.8% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 31.0% in July 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 31.3% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 32.0% in June 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.4% in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for May 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 28.5% in May 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 22.0% in April.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_May20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Divisia money growth soared across the board – hitting a historic high not witnessed in the 53-year period analyzed by our Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) team. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by a record 22.0% in April 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus an unrevised 10.0% in March 2020.

Today’s release represents the first time that all of our monetary aggregates reached new records.

In the last month, since our highlighting a future of nuanced changes surrounding the inflation versus deflation debate, a surge of articles and pieces have appeared.

Disinflation will likely dominate in the near term with jobless claims hitting highs and oil prices remaining relatively low for an extended period of time. Nonetheless, the passthrough from monetary policy into inflation is meaningfully more complex than often thought. My remarks at the Society of Economic Measurement conference in Thessaloniki shed some light on the interplay between CFS Divisia Money and inflation over time – http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/why_cfs_divisia_071316.pdf

Our data suggest that recent monetary measures will prove far from costless. Higher inflation is likely in coming months.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Apr20.pdf

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFS Divisia money growth soared across the board with broad money expanding at a double-digit pace in March (10.0%) – for the swiftest gain since October 2008 (10.6%). CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 10.0% in March 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 7.2% in February.

Large infusions of Federal Reserve liquidity led to the largest gain in narrow money since the start of our data begins in 1967. Here, CFS Divisia M1 advanced by 15.1% in March from the year earlier, relative to a scant increase of 1.0% in March 2019 over the preceding year. The second largest increase in the history of CFS Divisa M1 occurred in August 2011 in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis during the height of QE.

An odd mix exists between gigantic infusions of Federal Reserve liquidity and agents in the economy flocking to safety.

Lastly, the inflation versus deflation debate will become more nuanced as time elapses. To be sure, disinflation will dominate in the near term with jobless claims hitting highs and oil prices likely to remain low for an extended period of time. Nonetheless, the passthrough from monetary policy into inflation is meaningfully more complex than often thought. My remarks at the Society of Economic Measurement conference in Thessaloniki shed some light on the interplay between CFS Divisia Money and inflation over time – http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/why_cfs_divisia_071316.pdf

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Mar20.pdf

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’