FT: “Learning British Financial Stability Lessons. Seriously!”

Today, the Financial Times‘ Robin Wigglesworth released a well-researched article “Learning British Financial Stability Lessons.  Seriously!” – which covered CFS reports – https://on.ft.com/3ZZ8Rpc

CFS will put a finer point on on aspects of the reports in two upcoming events.

Please take a look at this article and our papers, which can be found on CFS’ website- www.CenterforFinancialStability.org.

The Federal Reserve needs to stay put on rates

Today, the Financial Times published Sheila Bair’s Opinion piece noting that:

– The Fed should feel vindicated in its decision to pause rate rises at its policy-setting meeting last month.  Although it seems poised to raise them again, the Fed should stay put.

– If the Fed does raise rates again, it could temper the impact by only raising rates on bank reserves, while leaving the rate it pays to money market funds and other non-bank financial intermediaries where it is.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://on.ft.com/3QatT1l

Sheila Bair is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Financial Stability.

Markets and Volatile Monetary Policy: Empirical Lessons from Banking Instability

Ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, the Fed is dealing with another problem of its own creation. The stock market is elevated and the economy and inflation are on the descent.

Monetary policy meaningfully contributed to the distress at the Silicon Valley Bank and recent swings in financial markets.

“Markets and Volatile Monetary Policy: Empirical Lessons from Banking Instability” offers a solution for officials and an opportunity for investors to profit.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Markets_Volatile_Monetary_061123.pdf

Last week, we released “A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS.”

A Story of Money, Inflation, and the CFS

At the Center for Financial Stability (CFS), we see the world differently. We see the world through monetary goggles – not at the exclusion of other variables, but from a different perspective.

Since 1) inflation proved to not be transitory after the post-pandemic fiscal and monetary response and 2) inflation remained negligible after the big money supply increases in 2009 to 2010, our perspective is essential for:

  • Officials to strengthen the financial system while more effectively promoting growth and
  • Investors to safeguard assets, manage financial institutions, or seek profits.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

Next week, CFS will release a paper on “Empirical Lessons for the Fed from Banking Instability.”

To view the full article:
https://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Money_Story_060623.pdf

Falling Money and the Fed

CFS Divisia M4 (DM4) declined by the 14th largest amount on record since 1968.

The implication is that inflation and growth are slowing more dramatically than many believe.

Over years and cycles, our data and analytics offer paths for investors to profit and officials to conduct policy in a way to limit inflation and promote growth in a less volatile financial environment.

A message on markets, analytics and policy implications will follow next week.

View “Falling Money and the Fed” at
https://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Falling_Money_013123.pdf

OFR Annual Report Warns of Elevated Risk to Financial Stability

In its 2022 Annual Report to Congressthe Office of Financial Research (“OFR”) warned that threats to U.S. financial stability are elevated compared to previous years because of rising inflation, tight credit conditions and geopolitical uncertainty.

OFR found that U.S. economic growth slowed due to elevated interest rates, a significant increase in commodity prices and lingering supply chain issues from the COVID-19 pandemic. OFR reported that non-financial corporate credit risk is rising, but household credit risk remains low. OFR said that financial stability risk is elevated across the financial system, including (i) macroeconomic risk, (ii) credit risk, (iii) liquidity and funding risk and (iv) contagion risk. OFR also that said (i) high volatility in the digital asset market, (ii) increased frequency and complexity of cybersecurity attacks, and (iii) financial losses due to climate-related financial risk contributed to the increased risk to financial stability.

Additionally, OFR highlighted the launch of two pilot programs:

  • the Non-centrally Cleared Bilateral Repo Pilot Project, which OFR said will give regulators more insight into the non-centrally cleared bilateral repo market. OFR is currently considering a rule to establish an ongoing data collection program as to bilateral repo (see previous coverage); and
  • the Climate Data and Analytics Hub pilot, which provides regulators with reliable climate data and tools to properly assess climate risks to financial stability.

LOFCHIE COMMENTARY

In the report, OFR tells us, “[a]s a frontier risk, climate-related financial risk—though difficult to model and forecast within the financial system—presents an increasing threat to financial stability. Being able to assess it accurately is vital to mitigating its effects.” Put differently, OFR acknowledges that it cannot measure the risk that climate change poses to financial stability, and it cannot demonstrate that climate change is a financial stability risk, or how risky it is, but OFR pledges to find something there. This makes no sense whatsoever. If the U.S. government is able to demonstrate the risks that arise from climate change in a convincing manner, businesses will adjust to these risks. For now, OFR does not have the data.

Further, much of what OFR paints as “climate change risk” is really very ordinary “weather risk,” such as building houses in areas likely to be flooded, or areas at risk of wildfires. (See footnote 167 of the OFR report and the papers cited therein.) These risks do not arise because the temperature rose a degree; they arise because people are building where perhaps they should not, which undoubtedly creates financial risk. But it is not climate change risk; it’s weather risk. If the OFR would approach the issue of weather more temperately, it would be more likely to produce work of value.

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FT: Bair on Volcker and the Fed

Today, the Financial Times published Sheila Bair’s Opinion piece “The Fed must emulate the tactics of Volcker’s fight against inflation.” Sheila notes that:

  • US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has expressed deep admiration for the legendary Paul Volcker, yet Powell is deviating from Volcker’s methods.
  • Volcker fought inflation by restraining growth in money supply to keep monetary policy tight through two recessions to finally beat inflation.
  • For many years, the Fed has unwisely paid little attention to the huge volume of money its accommodative polices have created. It now needs to follow Volcker’s example and attack excess money supply head-on.

We look forward to any comments you might have.

To view the full article:
https://www.ft.com/content/b82082c9-d26a-47a5-8b1a-34121f572645

Sheila Bair is a former chair of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and a senior fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Financial Stability.

Barnett on “Why were the Fed’s inflation forecasts so wrong?”

Professor William A. Barnett – CFS director of Advances in Financial and Monetary Measurement (AMFM) – questions “Why were the Fed’s inflation forecasts so wrong?”

He then addresses limitations in the modeling approach at the Federal Reserve and – more importantly – offers ideas for the future.

To view Bill’s opinion piece…
https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/readers-opinion/guest-commentary/article260903877.html