Penn: Quant Tools and Macro Workshop

The Penn Institute for Economic Research (PIER) will offer a workshop on Quantitative Tools for Macroeconomic Policy Analysis. Francis X. Diebold, Enrique G. Mendoza, and Frank Schorfheide will provide training on essential state-of-the-art methods.

Guest Speakers include:

– Guillermo Calvo
– Narayana Kocherlakota
– Donald Kohn (three-hour mini-workshop on the practice of Macroprudential Policy)

The workshop will be held May 4 to May 8 at the University of Pennsylvania. Details are available at http://economics.sas.upenn.edu/pier/tools-workshop.

Conclusion and Summary: Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System roundtable

The CFS co-organized a “Future of the Global Monetary and Financial System: 75 years after Bretton Woods” roundtable with the Euro 50 Group. The roundtable gathered high-level personalities coming from all over the world.

My final takeaways are:

  • First, the time is right for the Bretton Woods Institutions (BWIs) to exercise greater leadership. The IMF is uniquely situated to help govern effectively and navigate in an increasingly complex and challenging world. But, with greater complexities and areas of engagement comes the risk of mission creep.
  • Second, the international monetary and financial system would benefit from a move with great purpose over time to a more rules-based system.
  • Third, policy actions today would benefit from a system-wide and longer-term perspective.

A roundtable summary and conclusions are available at
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/bw2019/Final_Remarks_BW_in_DC.pdf

The conference agenda and bios are available at
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/bw2019.php

Aliber’s “Reflections on Bretton Woods”

Robert Z. Aliber offers his “Reflections on Bretton Woods.” Bob is professor emeritus of International Economics and Finance at the University of Chicago, co-author of Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises, and a good friend of CFS.

Bob covers much ground. Topics include:

  • The White Mountains, Cog Railroad, and Mount Washington Hotel.
  • Bretton Woods Conferences.
  • How the Founders of Bretton Woods might view the last 75 years.
  • Trade and Tariffs.
  • The IMF.

The full report is available at http://www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Reflections_on_Bretton_Woods_101719.pdf.

Levy on Monetary Realities Facing the ECB, Fed and BoJ: More Easing Won’t Stimulate the Economy

CFS is delighted to publish a thoughtful piece by Mickey Levy – Berenberg Capital Markets, Chief Economist for the Americas and Asia and Shadow Open Market Committee member.

In “Monetary Realities Facing the ECB, Fed and BoJ: More Easing Won’t Stimulate the Economy,” Mickey digs into the monetary policy transmission channels to assess growth implications of policy alternatives and considers the risks of excessive reliance on monetary easing.

He illustrates why further eases may not be the elixir for future growth. The paper is available at www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Monetary_Policy_Realities_072919.pdf.

ECB presentation by Philipp Hartmann

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) recently hosted a roundtable discussion on European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy with Philipp Hartmann. Philipp is Deputy Director General for research at the ECB and one of the founders of its research department.

Philipp’s presentation – covered the first 20 years of ECB policy, the relatively wide range of monetary instruments, defining new ones, and the strategic underpinning of its policy framework – available at http://www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/20190717_ECB_Monetary_Policy_Hartmann.pdf

Schuler on “Just Before Bretton Woods: The Atlantic City Conference”

CFS senior fellow Kurt Schuler presented on “Just before Bretton Woods: The Atlantic City Conference” at an event organized by the Treasury Historical Association.

Kurt’s presentation on the conference that laid the groundwork for Bretton Woods is available at http://www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/speeches/Just_before_Bretton_Woods_THA_20190717.pdf

His talk is based on a forthcoming book of the conference minutes that he is working on with co-editor Gabrielle Canning.

WSJ features Sandor on LIBOR Replacement…

Today, The Wall Street Journal published a wonderful article on CFS Advisory Board Member Richard Sandor and his company the American Financial Exchange (AFX). AFX developed a market-based LIBOR alternative, Ameribor. It now trades on an electronic platform and has over 700 institutional members in 49 states.

The article also nicely chronicles Richard’s prior successes as a perennial entrepreneur in the world of financial products – https://www.wsj.com/articles/futures-guru-targets-libor-replacement-11555410600.

Richard outlined thoughts on a LIBOR alternative at a CFS roundtable in 2012. He delved even more deeply and broadly at a roundtable discussion “Creation and Evolution of New Markets: The Case of Interest Rate Benchmarks” late last year – http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Sandor-11-16-18.pdf.

Hanke on Measuring Money / CFS Monetary Measures for March 2019…

In addition to the monthly CFS monetary and financial release, CFS special counselor Steve Hanke discusses the need for relevant data and benefits of broad money measurements in the latest World Economics Journal (see http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/research/HankeOnMeasuring.pdf.)

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for March 2019. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 4.4% in March 2019 on a year-over-year basis versus 4.5% in February.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Mar19.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) {ALLX DIVM }
2) {ECST T DIVMM4IY}
3) {ECST} –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) {ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY} –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

SEM / ECB conference Call for Papers

The Society of Economic Measurement’s (SEM) 2019 conference will be held at Goethe University in Frankfurt with cosponsorship by the European Central Bank (ECB) on August 16-18, 2019.

The Call for Papers deadline for submissions is April 1, 2019.

Keynote Speakers:

  • Richard Blundell, University College London
  • Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia
  • Arthur Lewbel, Boston College
  • Helmut Lütkepohl, Free University of Berlin
  • Kjetil Storesletten, University of Oslo
  • Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary, Presidential Address

Local Organizing Committee:

  • Michael Kosfeld, Goethe University Frankfurt (Chair)
  • Ester Faia, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Francis Gross, European Central Bank
  • Florian Hett, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
  • Loriana Pelizzon, Goethe University Frankfurt

Program Chairs:

  • Stephen Spear, Carnegie Mellon University
  • Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary

Logistics:

Conference Maker is now ready to accept submissions. You can find the Conference Maker site for the Frankfurt conference here:
http://editorialexpress.com/conference/SEM2019/

The deadline for submission of invited and contributed papers is April 1 (no extension), with decisions to be announced by May 1.

Invited Sessions: If you are organizer of an invited session, the information on the four papers invited for your session must be entered into Conference Maker before the April 1 deadline. There are three ways you can do that:
(a) You can enter the information about the four speakers and their papers into Conference Maker yourself.
(b) You can have your four authors enter the information into Conference Maker themselves.
(c) You can provide the information by email to Kristin Scheyer and request her to enter it into Conference Maker for you. Kristen’s email address is: SEMconferences@outlook.com

Contributed Sessions: If you would like to submit a contributed paper, please submit to Conference Maker and choose a Contributed Session Organizer whose area of expertise is a good match for the topic of your paper.

If you have questions about the use of Conference Maker, please contact Kristin Scheyer at SEMconferences@outlook.com or Steve Spear at ss1f@andrew.cmu.edu

With best wishes to the new SEM President – Apostolos Serletis – and congratulations to William A. Barnett for his leadership in founding the SEM and serving as the Society’s first President.

New Papers on Lessons for the Future from the Global Financial Crisis

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) was delighted to co-host a conference with the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland.

Leaders in academia, government, and finance from around the world joined together to present and discuss notable and pointed papers.  Held on the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis, discussions delved into crisis causes, the regulatory response, and lessons for the future.

Agenda and working papers can be found here
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/iceland.php

A conference volume published by Palgrave Macmillan will be forthcoming.