SEM / ECB conference Call for Papers

The Society of Economic Measurement’s (SEM) 2019 conference will be held at Goethe University in Frankfurt with cosponsorship by the European Central Bank (ECB) on August 16-18, 2019.

The Call for Papers deadline for submissions is April 1, 2019.

Keynote Speakers:

  • Richard Blundell, University College London
  • Erwin Diewert, University of British Columbia
  • Arthur Lewbel, Boston College
  • Helmut Lütkepohl, Free University of Berlin
  • Kjetil Storesletten, University of Oslo
  • Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary, Presidential Address

Local Organizing Committee:

  • Michael Kosfeld, Goethe University Frankfurt (Chair)
  • Ester Faia, Goethe University Frankfurt
  • Francis Gross, European Central Bank
  • Florian Hett, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz
  • Loriana Pelizzon, Goethe University Frankfurt

Program Chairs:

  • Stephen Spear, Carnegie Mellon University
  • Apostolos Serletis, University of Calgary

Logistics:

Conference Maker is now ready to accept submissions. You can find the Conference Maker site for the Frankfurt conference here:
http://editorialexpress.com/conference/SEM2019/

The deadline for submission of invited and contributed papers is April 1 (no extension), with decisions to be announced by May 1.

Invited Sessions: If you are organizer of an invited session, the information on the four papers invited for your session must be entered into Conference Maker before the April 1 deadline. There are three ways you can do that:
(a) You can enter the information about the four speakers and their papers into Conference Maker yourself.
(b) You can have your four authors enter the information into Conference Maker themselves.
(c) You can provide the information by email to Kristin Scheyer and request her to enter it into Conference Maker for you. Kristen’s email address is: SEMconferences@outlook.com

Contributed Sessions: If you would like to submit a contributed paper, please submit to Conference Maker and choose a Contributed Session Organizer whose area of expertise is a good match for the topic of your paper.

If you have questions about the use of Conference Maker, please contact Kristin Scheyer at SEMconferences@outlook.com or Steve Spear at ss1f@andrew.cmu.edu

With best wishes to the new SEM President – Apostolos Serletis – and congratulations to William A. Barnett for his leadership in founding the SEM and serving as the Society’s first President.

New Papers on Lessons for the Future from the Global Financial Crisis

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) was delighted to co-host a conference with the Central Bank of Iceland and the University of Iceland.

Leaders in academia, government, and finance from around the world joined together to present and discuss notable and pointed papers.  Held on the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis, discussions delved into crisis causes, the regulatory response, and lessons for the future.

Agenda and working papers can be found here
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/iceland.php

A conference volume published by Palgrave Macmillan will be forthcoming.

CFIUS and Silicon Valley: We’re Still Trying to Find a Cure!

CFS senior advisor Charlie Schott writes on new twists to the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).  While in government, Charlie’s group oversaw the Treasury-chaired inter-agency Committee.

CFIUS is the place where the United State’s commitment to an Open Investment Policy meets our most important national security concerns.

Early last August Congress passed the Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act (FIRRMA), making significant changes to CFIUS.  The following article covers (1) what changes have been made by the new law and (2) what to expect with CFIUS going forward.

Who should be interested in these changes?  The short answer is Silicon Valley and financial market participants!

For the paper
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/CFS_Schott_1_10_19.pdf

Congrats Randal Quarles on Financial Stability Board Appointment

Featured

Congratulations to Randy Quarles on his appointment to serve as Chair of the Financial Stability Board.

CFS is thankful for Randy’s early and constant support of our organization. As an Advisory Board Member and Trustee, he has been a source of wisdom on a wide range of topics. In particular, his involvement in “Bretton Woods: The Founders and Future” was especially productive and meaningful. The inspiration and encouragement from Randy will continue to guide CFS especially as we plan to honor the 75th anniversary of the birth of the international financial system and think strategically about the future.

See “Summary and Next Steps – Bretton Woods: The Founders and Future.”

Randy is uniquely experienced, remarkably learned, and thoughtful on virtually any monetary, regulatory, or related legal topic. Likewise, few to none are more honorable in character.

We wish him the best at the Financial Stability Board and continued success at the Fed.

Novick on Financial Industry Transitions

Barbara Novick (BlackRock Vice Chairman and CFS Advisory Board Member) discussed financial industry transitions at the recent CFS Global Markets Workshop.

Presentation highlights include:

– Indexed equity strategies remain relatively small,
– Challenges of applying macroprudential tools to market finance,
– Potential risks to the US financial system from the future of Libor to bondholder rights to pension underfunding, among others.

For accompanying slides:
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/BNovick-slides11-29-18.pdf

Don’t dismantle the post-crisis early warning system…

Greg Feldberg posted a thoughtful piece on the Office of Financial Research (OFR) – “Don’t dismantle the post-crisis early warning system.”  The OFR is a National treasure…and should be treated as such.

Greg covers much ground and is well informed as a former Senior Associate Director for Research at the OFR, Director of Research at the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC), and current Yale research scholar.

The perspective is well articulated.  I have a few remaining questions for Greg – such as his perspective on the relationship between FSOC and the OFR as well as the prior study on investment management.  Investment managers differ dramatically from banks.

I highly recommend the read – https://www.brookings.edu/research/dont-dismantle-the-post-crisis-early-warning-system/

Best,  Larry

Crisis Detection and Prevention

I discuss crisis detection and prevention based on experiences chairing an inter-agency crisis prevention group (while at the U.S. Treasury), working as a strategist on Wall Street, and advising a global macro hedge fund. The paper was published as a chapter in “The 10 Years After” the financial crisis volume published by the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee.

My views differ from many recently offered.

I conclude with eight actionable ideas to improve crisis detection for investors and officials.

For full remarks:
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/10YearsAfter_Goodman_Chapter.pdf

Sandor on “Creation and Evolution of New Markets: The Case of Interest Rate Benchmarks”

Dr. Richard Sandor – CFS Advisory Board Member and CEO of the American Financial Exchange (AFX) delivered remarks “Creation and Evolution of New Markets: The Case of Interest Rate Benchmarks” at a recent CFS roundtable.

Richard discussed the new Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and American Interbank Offering Rate (Ameribor) – which is a new transaction-based interest rate based on actual overnight, unsecured transactions. As a perennial financial entrepreneur, his comments on LIBOR, financial innovation and the seven stages of market creation were especially noteworthy.

For the presentation: http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Sandor-11-16-18.pdf

For more on the AFX and Ameribor, please request a briefing pack from Rafael Marques at rmarques@theafex.com.

From China / Central Banking East and West since the Crisis…

I had the pleasure of presenting “Central Banking East and West since the Crisis,” at a discussion hosted by the Shanghai Development Research Foundation (SDRF) and Friedrich Ebert Stiftung.

Key takeaways include:

  • Much has changed in China and central banking in the last decade.
  • Most analysis of central bank balance sheets fails to incorporate the impact of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) on the provision of global liquidity. This is a critical error – especially as the Chinese yuan (CNY) moves toward reserve currency status.
  • The Federal Reserve, PBOC, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England were early providers of global liquidity in the aftermath of the crisis. Yet, after 2011, central bank liquidity created distortions.
  • Extraordinary monetary policies were far from costless.
  • Analysis of speculative activity in futures markets after large injections of central bank liquidity reveals that:
    1. Speculative activity skyrockets.
    2. Net speculative long positions increase and push valuations upward.
    3. The volatility of investor positioning or investor switching behavior also increases.
  • Removal of excess central bank liquidity remains one of the most formidable challenges for markets today.

For slides accompanying the presentation: www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/speeches/ShanghaiDRF_101518.pdf

On a parenthetical note, after over two decades of travel to China, this was one of my most extraordinary visits.

Hanke on Money in Forbes…

Johns Hopkins University professor and CFS special counselor, Steve Hanke wrote a superb piece on understanding money in Forbes.

He writes that “The Fed’s money supply measures are poor quality and misleading. For superior measures, go to the Center for Financial Stability in NYC, and use its Divisia M4 metric.” His piece stretches into important detail and reveals common misconceptions.

From my perspective, our monetary data have been exceedingly helpful at understanding the efficacy of Fed policy and wiggles in the US economy. Money and financial liability data are applicable for investment managers and economists of all stripes… Keynesians, monetarists, etc.

The full piece is available at … https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevehanke/2018/10/29/the-feds-misleading-money-supply-measures/