Congrats Randal Quarles on Fed Appointment…

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Congratulations to Randy Quarles for his appointment and confirmation to serve as the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.

CFS is thankful for Randy’s early and constant support of our organization. As an Advisory Board Member and Trustee, he has been a source of wisdom on a wide range of topics. In particular, his involvement in “Bretton Woods: The Founders and Future” was especially productive and meaningful. The inspiration and encouragement from Randy will continue to guide CFS especially as we plan to honor the 75th anniversary of the birth of the international financial system and think strategically about the future.

See “Summary and Next Steps  – Bretton Woods: The Founders and Future.”

Randy is uniquely experienced, remarkably learned, and thoughtful on virtually any monetary, regulatory, or related legal topic. Likewise, few to none are more honorable in character.

We wish him the best at the Fed.

President Trump Names FRB, CFTC Nominees

President Donald J. Trump nominated Dan Berkovitz to serve as a CFTC Commissioner and Michelle Bowman and Richard Clarida to serve on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Mr. Berkovitz was nominated to serve the remainder of a five-year term. He is a partner at WilmerHale and vice chair of the American Bar Association Committee on Futures and Derivatives. Mr. Berkovitz previously was CFTC General Counsel and Deputy Representative to the Financial Stability Oversight Council. He also served as a senior staff lawyer for the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations and Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management.

Ms. Bowman was nominated to serve the remainder of a 14-year term set to expire in 2020. She is currently the Kansas State Bank Commissioner and previously was an executive at Farmers and Drovers Bank. Ms. Bowman served in government in several capacities including as a staffer for Senator Bob Dole, Counsel for several House committees, Director of Congressional and Intergovernmental Affairs at the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Deputy Assistant Secretary and Policy Advisor to Secretary Tom Ridge at the Department of Homeland Security.

Mr. Clarida was nominated to serve a four-year term as Vice Chair of the FRB. Mr. Clarida is currently the Lowell Harriss Professor of Economics at Columbia University. He is also a Global Strategic Advisor for PIMCO and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Clarida previously served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the U.S. Treasury and was a Senior Staff Economist with President Ronald Reagan’s Council of Economic Advisers.

CFS Monetary Measures for March 2018

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for March 2018. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 5.0% in March 2018 on a year-over-year basis, maintaining the same growth rate as in February.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Mar18.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) {ALLX DIVM }
2) {ECST T DIVMM4IY}
3) {ECST} –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) {ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY} –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFTC Chair Characterizes New Approach to Swaps Regulation as “Principles Based”

In advance of the release of a new framework for swaps reform, CFTC Chair J. Christopher Giancarlo declared that the CFTC would return to its “historic character” as a “principles-based regulator.”

In remarks at the Sims Lecture at Vanderbilt Law School, Mr. Giancarlo stated that it is crucial for the CFTC to rely on its core principles when interpreting the application of the law. Mr. Giancarlo stated that the agency had strayed from its “principles-based” approach with respect to the swap market reforms under the Dodd-Frank Act. He confirmed that the CFTC is taking steps to improve the regulation of the swaps market. Among other initiatives, the CFTC will be releasing an improved framework known as “Swaps Reform Version 2.0.”

Mr. Giancarlo also called for the agency to continuously review past policy applications to confirm that they remain optimized for the purposes intended and to rely on its core principles in areas where legislation is outdated. As an example, Mr. Giancarlo noted that legislation has not kept pace with technology, specifically with respect to cryptocurrency. He stated: “[w]hen it comes to the challenge of crypto, it is clear that our governing statutes were not designed for this technology.”

Lofchie Comment: CFTC Chair Giancarlo’s remark that the CFTC had strayed from its prior principles-based approach is notable. The assertion permits re-examination of the CFTC’s trading rules with respect to swaps, where the details of the CFTC’s requirements arguably diverged substantially from existing market practices and have drawn criticism from both sell- and buy-side market participants.

CFPB Acting Director Calls for Agency Restructuring

In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (“CFPB”) Acting Director Mick Mulvaney outlined his recommendations for curbing the power and authority of the CFPB. Mr. Mulvaney addressed recent recommendations from the CFPB Semi-Annual Report.

Mr. Mulvaney echoed his request for Congress to (i) require the CFPB to obtain funding through Congressional appropriations, (ii) require legislative approval for major rules, (iii) install an independent Inspector General to oversee operations, and (iv) ensure that the CFPB is accountable to the president. Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-ID) said that the “fundamental structure” of the CFPB should be altered in order to foster greater transparency and accountability. He called for a “bipartisan commission,” as opposed to the current single-director structure, and expressed support for Mr. Mulvaney’s request for funding dictated by Congressional appropriations rather than drawn from the Federal Reserve.

Committee Ranking Member Sherrod Brown (D-OH) charged that Mr. Mulvaney was appointed illegally, and accused him of waging a “war on working families” while “handing out favors to Wall Street and shady lenders.” Mr. Brown asserted that Mr. Mulvaney has given outsized salaries to his appointees at the CFPB, and condemned his decision not to pursue enforcement actions against payday lenders. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) denounced Mr. Mulvaney’s plans to “kill” the CFPB, and argued that he is “hurting real people [in order] to score cheap political points.”

In a previous letter to Senator Warren, Mr. Mulvaney said that his recommendations are intended to better align CFPB function with Congressional intent. Mr. Mulvaney said that the CFPB is uniquely insulated from congressional and executive oversight, and argued that changing the structure of the agency is necessary in order to make it “permanently accountable and transparent.”

Lofchie Comment: Mr. Mulvaney argues that the CFPB should be made into an ordinary regulatory agency, accountable to Congress and with leadership composed of members of both political parties. Senator Warren’s argument that Mr. Mulvaney is “killing” the CFPB by suggesting that Congress should have authority over it is very strange, particularly given the conventional wisdom that Democrats will attain a majority in at least one house of Congress in the next election.

Rather than denounce Mr. Mulvaney, Senator Warren and Senator Brown might consider adopting his suggestions, which would give the Democrats institutional representation at the CFPB and continuing non-partisan insight as to its activities. In this way, the Senators would improve the long-term operation of the CFPB by allowing for genuine Congressional control over its budget, activities and leadership; and by assuring that there would be CFPB Commissioners representative of both parties.

CPMI and IOSCO Publish Revised CCP Stress Testing Framework

The Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (“CPMI”) and IOSCO published revised guidance for regulators on designing and operating supervisory stress tests for central counterparties (“CCPs”).

The report, Framework for supervisory stress testing of central counterparties, provides a “non-prescriptive approach” to stress testing of CCPs. The framework is macroprudentially oriented; that is, it is intended to be used to analyze systemic effects of multiple CCPs responding to the same stress event(s). As previously covered, the CPMI and IOSCO requested feedback on an earlier draft, which informed this final version.

The report outlines the following:

  • questions to consider before executing a supervisory stress test;
  • establishing distinct roles and responsibilities for all participants;
  • key elements for creating stress test scenarios;
  • determining data needs and measures for data validation;
  • applying risk exposures to scenarios and aggregating results; and
  • using test results and adhering to disclosure requirements.

Lofchie Comment: The real question is not whether the CCPs can survive; the real question continues to be whether they can survive without bringing down their participants. The regulators need to expand their analysis to consider the risk that when the CCPs are in trouble, they will demand more capital and collateral from their participants, thereby sucking liquidity out of the system, and forcing a further selldown of the market as CCP participants liquidate customer and proprietary positions.

New Book on GDP-Linked Bonds

A new e-book, Sovereign GDP-Linked Bonds: Rationale and Design, will be of interest to a number of readers of this blog. Contributors include Maurice Obstfeld (chief economist of the IMF), Patrick Honohan (governor of the Central Bank of Ireland during Ireland’s debt crisis), and David Beers (adviser at the Bank of England). The book is available for free by registering at the site of the publisher, VoxEU. (Hat tip: David Beers.)

CFTC Commissioner Reassures Agriculture Industry of Futures Market Protections

CFTC Commissioner Brian Quintenz assured agricultural industry (“Ag industry”) producers and cooperatives that the CFTC is continuing its efforts to protect and promote the futures market. Mr. Quintenz promoted education, accessibility and market integrity to increase farmers’ and ranchers’ engagement in the futures market.

In remarks before the 2018 Agricultural Commodity Futures Conference, Mr. Quintenz urged Ag industry producers and cooperatives to continue using the futures markets to hedge their risks. Mr. Quintenz addressed producer concerns that the marketplace had become “too complex” and committed the CFTC to closing information gaps and promoting education for farmers and ranchers.

Mr. Quintenz argued that accessibility is particularly challenging for farmers and ranchers due to fewer available futures commission merchants (“FCMs”). FCMs, which Mr. Quintenz described as the “gateway” to the futures market for farmers and ranchers, have decreased in number by approximately 64 percent since the financial crisis. In addition, the FCMs that are still available reportedly have begun limiting the services they offer to smaller clients. As a remedy, Mr. Quintenz discussed reform of the supplementary leverage ratio calculation, which penalizes banks’ provisions of clearing services, and may be a contributor to the consolidation of the FCM sector. Mr. Quintenz stated that he would support policies that encourage client clearing services in order to strengthen the FCM sector.

Mr. Quintenz also acknowledged that the CFTC had “no role” in the regulation of global commodity prices or design of futures contracts. However, he promised that the CFTC would promote convergence between the futures and cash markets and require regulation of the terms and conditions of futures contracts.

Lofchie Comment: While legislators and regulators commonly bemoan the size of financial firms and decry “too big to fail,” they simultaneously adopt regulatory requirements that impose significant fixed costs. This is true not only as to CFTC regulation, but also as to banking and securities regulation. The CFTC under Chairman Gensler was particularly “aggressive,” imposing numerous rules that raised costs and reduced profit opportunities. At the time, Mr. Gensler assured the public and Congress that the new requirements would reduce costs to investors. He was mistaken.

Commissioner Quintenz points out that the exodus of firms from the futures industry is due, in part, to increased regulatory costs. He committed to working to strengthen FCMs. It will probably take quite a bit to reverse the trend. Being an FCM in today’s regulatory environment does not seem an attractive new business: tremendous fixed regulatory costs; no opportunity for differentiation of products; and no certainty that the regulators would not revert to their previous aggressive ways.

FRB Governor Reviews Financial Stability Policy

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“FRB”) Governor Lael Brainard reviewed the current state of prudential financial stability regulation including policies that address “tail risk.” Prudential, macroprudential and countercyclical policies, according to Ms. Brainard, are crucial to minimizing the risks that threaten financial stability.

In remarks at the Stern School of Business at New York University, Ms. Brainard stated that the FRB focuses on correcting vulnerabilities rather than attempting to predict “adverse shocks.” Vulnerable areas that were cited include “asset valuation and risk appetite, borrowing by the nonfinancial sector, liquidity risks and maturity transformation by the financial system and leverage in the financial system.” Noting that overall risk remains moderate, Ms. Brainard emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor existing and emerging vulnerabilities. She reported that the FRB is looking into the extreme volatility demonstrated by some cryptocurrencies due to their highly speculative nature. However, Ms. Brainard said it is unclear if the valuations of cryptocurrencies could be a threat to financial stability.

Ms. Brainard described the necessity of FRB regulations that require banks to hold substantial capital and liquidity buffers. She said that these regulations force banks to internalize the costs of engaging in risky financial behavior.

She also reinforced the importance of supervisory stress tests; however, she cautioned that stress testing has not demonstrated that it is effective in counteracting the financial system’s tendency toward pro-cyclicality. In response, the FRB implemented the countercyclical capital buffer (“CCyB”), which is designed to counteract “elevated risk of above normal losses” for banks. At least once per year, the FRB votes to determine the level of the CCyB, but so far has voted to leave the CCyB at its minimum value of zero.

NY Fed Names New President and CEO

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York named John C. Williams as president and CEO. Mr. Williams will assume the new position on June 18, 2018, upon the retirement of current president William C. Dudley.

Mr. Williams is currently serving as president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. He assumed his current role in 2011, following a period as executive vice president and director of research.

Mr. Williams began his career as an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. He also served as a senior economist at the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

FTC Confirms Investigation into Facebook’s Data Privacy Practices

Acting Director Tom Pahl of the Federal Trade Commission (“FTC”) Bureau of Consumer Protection confirmed that the FTC is investigating the data privacy practices of Facebook Inc. (“Facebook”) following reports that Cambridge Analytica, a data collection and analytics firm, may have misappropriated the personal information of over 50 million users. Facebook previously settled charges with the FTC in 2011 for deceiving consumers regarding the privacy of their account information. The conditions of that settlement required Facebook to obtain approval from consumers before changing the way it shares their data, and to periodically review its privacy practices. The 2011 charges alleged that Facebook’s practices violated Section 5(a) of the Federal Trade Commission Act, which prohibits unfair or deceptive acts or practices in or affecting commerce.

In addition, a group of 37 Attorneys General issued a letter to Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg requesting information on Facebook’s policies and procedures for protecting users’ personal information, as well as the social networking platform’s plans for improving privacy controls and disclosures going forward. Watchdog group Common Cause filed complaints with the Department of Justice and the Federal Election Commission accusing Cambridge Analytica of violating federal election laws.

Earlier this month, Facebook stated that a University of Cambridge professor created an application that used Facebook’s platform to gain access to consumers’ information. At the time, Facebook argued that the situation was not a data breach because consumers knowingly gave away their consent when they signed up for the app. Since then, however, Facebook acknowledged that the professor violated Facebook’s Platform Policies by failing to disclose that the data collected was passed onto data collections and analytics firms, Strategic Communication Laboratories and its affiliate corporation, Cambridge Analytica.