UK Invitation: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement and COVID-19 Challenges Conference

An important United Kingdom economics conference “Post BREXIT: Uncertainty, Risk Measurement and COVID-19 Challenges” is being held online on July 20-21.

CFS Director of Advances in Monetary and Financial Measurement (AMFM) Professor William A. Barnett will be delivering a keynote lecture “Is the BREXIT Bifurcation Causing Chaos in the United Kingdom?”

Other keynotes include:

  • David Aikman: Professor of Finance and Director of the Qatar Centre for Global Banking and Finance, King’s Business School, King’s College.
  • Jagjit Chadha: Director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
  • Marcelle Chauvet, Professor of Economics, University of California Riverside.
  • Costas Milas: Professor of Finance at the Management School, University of Liverpool.
  • Patrick Minford: Professor of Applied Macroeconomics at Cardiff University.
  • Federica Romei, Associate Professor in Economics, University of Oxford

The full agenda is available at

Attendance and registration are free of charge and available at

Congratulations to Professor Jane Binner, Chair of Finance at the University of Birmingham, and her colleagues for organizing a timely and impactful conference.

Rhodes on France / Promotion to the Rank of Commander, Legion of Honor

Congratulations to William R. Rhodes – CFS Advisory Board Chairman – for his promotion to the rank of Commander in the Legion of Honor by France.

As Bill notes, “France is our oldest ally, and the friendship between France and the United States has allowed our countries to achieve great things together and to affect the course of history and international relations.”

I was privileged to attend the ceremony and was moved by Bill’s perspective on French and American history as well as his personal engagement with France over the years.

Hence, I thought that you too might enjoy his remarks on receiving this prestigious award…

Now, Inflation is Clear and Global

Across the board higher consumer price inflation in the United States removes any ambiguity or doubt regarding the existence of price pressures beyond transitory or base effects.

Overall consumer prices increased by 5.4% on the year ending in June. Core inflation increased by 4.5% over the same period.  In fact, in the last 4 months, both overall and core inflation exceeded market expectations and increased relative to the previous month’s release.

The phenomenon also extends well beyond simply the United States. It is global.

A diffusion index of every inflation release relative to the prior release for 49 countries shows an upward impulse since the beginning of the year. More pointedly, a diffusion index of reported inflation relative to expectations for the same complex of countries illustrates how actual inflation has been exceeding expected inflation especially since May 2021.
(see Figures 1 and 2…

The Center for Financial Stability (CFS) has been clear about risks and financial stability implications.  Our first email on April 22, 2020 noted how the initial impulse in the signal from CFS broad money would be a period of disinflation followed by inflation.

Inflation Fears Offers the Fed a Chance to Modernize with Money
Post-Pandemic Economic Risks

June CFS Divisia money and financial liability data will be released on August 2 at 9:00 AM ET.

The present global macro backdrop for investors and officials is one of the most challenging and complex in decades. We look forward to any comments you might have.