CFS Monetary Measures for November 2019

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for November 2019. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 7.4% in November 2019 on a year-over-year basis versus 6.6% in October.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Nov19.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) {ALLX DIVM }
2) {ECST T DIVMM4IY}
3) {ECST} –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) {ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY} –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce Questions Current Data Collection Practices

SEC Commissioner Hester M. Peirce questioned the agency’s current data collection process and analysis.

In a speech before the National Economists Club, Ms. Peirce expressed concern that regulators’ data collection requirements are too far-reaching. According to Ms. Peirce, regulators are increasingly expanding data requirements without adequately considering (i) the underlying costs to regulators, market participants and investors, (ii) the usefulness of the information, and (iii) the potential cybersecurity risks. She:

  • questioned whether the information collected by Form PF is useful enough to outweigh the burden of compliance on hedge funds and other private funds; and
  • expressed concern that the Consolidated Audit Trail (or “CAT”) – which will collect data from broker-dealers across the county – is costly and a significant cybersecurity liability.

Ms. Peirce urged the SEC to invite academics and market participants to analyze the data collected, raise questions and suggest regulatory solutions. She stated that oftentimes market participants are better at “identifying problems and generating solutions” than the regulators. To encourage independent assistance, Ms. Peirce advised the SEC to make it easier for market participants to access the available data.

Ms. Peirce also addressed recent feedback calling on regulators to foster “sustainable finance,” (a/k/a “building a financial system that fosters a better, more sustainable society”). She stated that such a system should be formed by the free market, and should not be “dictated by a few powerful financial regulators.”

LOFCHIE COMMENTARY

In a world where every website is under potential attack from hostile nation states and from criminal organizations, why would one take the risk of gathering so much financial information in one place? The U.S. government has been successfully hacked; very sophisticated data companies have been successfully hacked; large financial institutions have been successfully hacked. There appears no obvious justification for accumulating so much financial information in a single location, as there can be no assurance that it can be kept safe for all time. Put another way, if the regulators cannot attest that, even if the site is hacked, the benefit of collecting and aggregating the financial information will nonetheless outweigh the harm, then it seems imprudent to proceed.

Form PF, as previously described, is “fundamentally useless.” See, e.g.SEC Requests Comments on Form PF. Anyone with knowledge of the relevant subject areas can look at the questions and see that they will not generate meaningful data; it’s not even necessary to look at the responses to see that the entire data collection effort has been a 99% waste.

Issing: Memorandum on the ECB’s Monetary Policy

We thank Otmar Issing for sending a recent “Memorandum on the ECB’s Monetary Policy” in response to CFS distributions. To be sure, the broad content of the message was covered in the financial press. However, meaningful nuances and details are only apparent with a full read. Hence, it may be of interest to CFS friends.

Signed by:
Hervé Hannoun, Former First Deputy Governor, Banque de France, Paris
Otmar Issing, Former Member of the ECB-Executive Board, Würzburg
Klaus Liebscher, Former Governor Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Vienna
Helmut Schlesinger, Former President Deutsche Bundesbank, Oberursel
Jürgen Stark, Former Member of the ECB-Executive Board, Frankfurt
Nout Wellink, Former Governor De Nederlandsche Bank, Amsterdam

Judgement shared by:
Jacques de Larosière, Former Governor Banque de France, Paris
Christian Noyer, Former Governor Banque deFrance, Paris

The full memorandum is available at
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Memorand.pdf

Wishing you the best into the Holiday Season and New Year!

Hormats and Istel on Inequality and Low Rates

CFS is delighted to share Robert Hormats and Yves-Andre Istel’s personal views on “Inequality Perils from Lower Rates.” They contend that:

  • Low interest rate policies have become increasingly ineffective in fostering equitable growth.
  • Negative effects of ultra‐low rates have been underestimated and are greater than generally thought, especially in increasing inequality.
  • Therefore, a new mix of monetary/fiscal policies with a long-term structural focus is called for.

Yves and Bob have been thoughtful and engaged with CFS. Robert Hormats is the former Undersecretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment. Yves‐Andre Istel is a Senior Advisor to Rothschild & Co.

The full report is available at
www.CenterforFinancialStability.org/research/Hormats_Istel_121619.pdf