CFS Monetary Measures for September 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for September 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.5% in September 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.7% in August.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Sep20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Comments on The Great Demographic Reversal

Two comments received regarding Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan’s “The Great Demographic Reversal” follow questions that surfaced during the CFS roundtable discussion. They include 1) the role of technology and productivity as well as 2) the internationalization of the big demographic shift.

First, Hal Varian (Chief Economist, Google and Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley) offers a paper on advancing technology and automation vis-a-vis the impact of demographic forces on the supply of labor – https://voxeu.org/article/automation-versus-procreation-aka-bots-versus-tots.

Second, David Dodge (Senior Advisor, Bennett Jones and Former President, Bank of Canada) noted…
“I have been making the same point about the aging of the baby boom generation in Canada. This big cohort were big savers in the first two decades of this century. They will become big dis-savers from 2025 to 2045.”

The original message and link to slides are below.

—–Original Message—–
From: Lawrence Goodman lgoodman@the-cfs.org
Sent: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 12:31 PM
Subject: The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart and Pradhan)…

Last week, we hosted a roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan.

The Great Demographic Reversal is superb. It addresses head-on demographic forces that will only gain in importance over time. The book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalization will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. Charles and Manoj broadened the country-by-country demographic analysis by connecting many global threads and interactions among nations.

Please find their slides at
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/speeches/The_Great_Demographic_Reversal_CFS.pdf

The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart and Pradhan)

Last week, we hosted a roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan.

The Great Demographic Reversal is superb.  It addresses head-on demographic forces that will only gain in importance over time.  The book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalization will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality.  Charles and Manoj broadened the country-by-country demographic analysis by connecting many global threads and interactions among nations.

Please find their slides at
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/speeches/The_Great_Demographic_Reversal_CFS.pdf

CFS Monetary Measures for August 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.8% in August 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 30.8% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFTC Advisory Committee Recommends Regulatory Actions to Address Climate Risk

A subcommittee of the CFTC Market Risk Advisory Committee (“MRAC”) recommended that U.S. regulators take action to address the risks that climate change poses to the U.S. financial system.

The recommendations came in a report, titled Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System, issued by the MRAC Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee. CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam, the sponsor of the MRAC, suggested the report could be used by “policymakers, regulators, and stakeholders” to begin a process of “taking thoughtful and intentional steps toward building a climate-resilient financial system that prepares our country for the decades to come.”

The report presents 53 recommendations to mitigate risks to financial markets posed by climate change and concludes, among other things, that:

climate change poses a “major risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and to its ability to sustain the American economy”;

regulators “must” recognize that climate changes poses “serious emerging risks” and should move “urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks”;

existing law provides U.S. financial regulators with significant authority that could be used to begin addressing financial climate-related risk;

regulators can help promote the role of financial markets as providers of solutions to climate-related risks; and

financial innovation is required to manage climate risk and to facilitate the flow of capital in order to help “accelerate net-zero transition and increase economic opportunity.”

The report was approved 34-0 by the subcommittee’s membership. The CFTC also posted statements from participants on the subcommittee: (1) Cargill, (2) Citi, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, (3) CME Group, (4) ConocoPhillips and (5) Vanguard.

LOFCHIE COMMENTARY

The job of the CFTC is to regulate markets in which market participants can agree to transfer risk between them. If there exists a sufficient number of market participants to create a liquid market in which they can buy and sell “climate risk,” such risk would be measured by these participants. Then the CFTC should do its best to regulate that market so that it operates efficiently and transparently. It is not the job of the CFTC, as a regulatory agency, to advocate as to carbon taxes (either for or against), or for that matter, local insurance markets, corporate disclosures, or corporate governance. That job is entrusted to other regulators. When regulators pursue these other objectives, they deviate from their mission and their real task.

With the NFL football season now upon us, it is appropriate for the CFTC to consider the words of the greatest football coach of all time: “Do Your Job.”

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 31.0% in July 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 31.3% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Goodhart on “Deflation or Inflation”

CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart offers thoughts on “After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?”  Charles is a member of the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics and a former member of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Topics include:

– Understanding the past.
– Assessing “low for longer” and “inflation is a monetary phenomenon?”
– Offering potential future pathways for prices.

For full remarks:
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Goodhart_Deflation_Inflation_081420.pdf

Sheila C. Bair Joins CFS Distinguished Advisory Board

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THE CENTER FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY APPOINTS SHEILA C. BAIR TO DISTINGUISHED ADVISORY BOARD

(New York, NY – JULY 29, 2020) The Center for Financial Stability (“CFS”), today, announced the appointment of Sheila C. Bair to its distinguished Advisory Board.  Ms. Bair will also serve as a CFS Senior Fellow, contributing to research and policy offerings.

Ms. Bair has had a long and distinguished career in government, academia, and finance. Twice named by “Forbes” magazine as the second most powerful woman in the world, she is perhaps best known as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, when she steered the agency through the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.  For her efforts to protect bank depositors and homeowners during the crisis, she received the Kennedy Library’s Profiles in Courage Award, and was named “the little guy’s protector in chief” by “Time” magazine.

“CFS has long been a thought leader in the area of monetary policy and financial system analytics.  The organization has been an influencer of influencers,” Sheila Bair said. “It is time to broaden the CFS footprint,” added Ms. Bair.

“We are thrilled that Sheila has joined us at CFS.  Her independence, courage, knowledge, and integrity fully reflect and amplify CFS values and principles,” said Lawrence Goodman, President and Founder of the Center for Financial Stability.

A former finance professor and college president, Ms. Bair has been nationally recognized for her innovative initiatives to make college more accessible and affordable. She is a frequent commentator and op-ed contributor on financial regulation and the student debt crisis, as well as author of the NY Times Best Seller, “Bull by the Horns”, her 2012 memoir of the financial crisis.

Ms. Bair currently serves on a number of corporate governing boards, including Host Hotels, Bunge Ltd., and Fannie Mae, and on the International Advisory Board to the Santander Group. She also serves on the board of Paxos, a blockchain technology trust company, and as an advisor to several fintech startups. She is a founding director of the Volcker Alliance, established by Former Federal Reserve Board Chair Paul Volcker to build trust in government and is the founding chair of the Systemic Risk Council, which advocates for financial stability. In addition, she is a Senior Advisor to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation on financial issues confronting young people.

William R. Rhodes, the Chairman of the Advisory Board stated, “CFS’ innovative and practical approach, programs, and research position the organization as one of the world’s leading think tanks and a vital resource for the New York and international financial communities.” He added that “Sheila will play an important role in our future.”

CFS is an independent, nonpartisan think tank focused on financial markets – with business lines presently segmented into the future of finance, data and analytics, policy, and technology.  The Center for Financial Stability was created before financial stability became widely recognized in the private sector as an essential factor in central banking and policy.  CFS has successfully and consistently anticipated future financial market trends over the years with an ahead-of-their-time approach to the early identification of financial risks.  CFS has developed data and analysis to improve the study of financial markets.  CFS maintains a global reach with participants from over 187 of the 195 countries in the world.  CFS prides itself on integrity, long-term relationships, and independence.

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Media Contact:
Brigitte Rudman
212.626.2660
brudman@the-cfs.org

CFS Monetary Measures for June 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for June 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 32.0% in June 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.4% in May.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jun20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Value Investing and Monetary Policy

Jason Zweig’s “The Bull Market Isn’t As Big as You Think” in The Wall Street Journal  nicely illustrates how the stock market may not be as disconnected from economic reality as many suspect. However, the piece misses the monetary elephant in the room.

Since the introduction of Quantitative Easing (QE), value investing only outperformed growth strategies during four brief moments – as measured by S&P Value and Growth Indexes (see http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/oped/Value_Investing_063020.pdf). 

Not surprisingly, the relative outperformance of value versus growth strategies coincided with periods when the Fed curtailed its injections of monetary liquidity: 1) the end of QE1, 2) end of QE2, 3) end of QE3, and 3) the period of quantitative tapering.

Although the monetary policy response to the Coronavirus was needed, unintended distortions should be acknowledged and incorporated into future actions.

The implication for value investors is clear.  Monetary largess is wreaking havoc with the investment strategy.  For the public and officials, the propagation of valuation distortions starve a wide spectrum of deserving companies and industries access to capital.  This will surely minimize private sector driven growth going forward.

View the report
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/oped/Value_Investing_063020.pdf