Joyce Chang joins CFS Distinguished Advisory Board

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

THE CENTER FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY
APPOINTS JOYCE CHANG TO DISTINGUISHED ADVISORY BOARD

(New York, NY – November 24, 2020) The Center for Financial Stability (“CFS”), today, announces the appointment of Joyce Chang to its distinguished Advisory Board.

Ms. Chang is the Chair of Global Research for J.P. Morgan’s Corporate and Investment Bank. J.P. Morgan’s Global Research team of over 900 professionals study all sectors in which the firm does business, including equities, fixed income, currency and commodities, emerging markets, derivatives and structured finance. She has been named as one of Top 25 Most Powerful Women in Finance by American Banker since 2012 and was included in Barron’s inaugural 2020 list of the 100 Most Influential Women in Finance. In 2014, she was inducted into the Fixed Income Analyst Society Hall of Fame.

“CFS is at the forefront of analyzing the paradigm shifts underway in global financial markets,” Joyce Chang said. “The organization has been a leader in research, providing insightful and innovative coverage of evolving financial markets dynamics, unconventional monetary policies, and a better understanding of sources of financial instability.”

William R. Rhodes, the Chairman of the Advisory Board stated, “Joyce is extremely well known internationally and is highly regarded in official and financial circles throughout the world. Her engagement will be especially meaningful for the future of our Advisory Board.”

“Joyce’s intellectual bandwidth and energy are legendary,” said Lawrence Goodman, President and Founder of the Center for Financial Stability. He added that “at a time when global risks and forces impacting markets are increasingly multipronged, we are especially delighted that she joins us now.”

Ms. Chang began her career as an Emerging Markets Strategist, where from 1997 through 2012, she held top rankings in Institutional Investor surveys for Emerging Markets research, earning 25 #1 individual rankings. She was a Managing Director at Merrill Lynch and Salomon Brothers prior to joining JPMorgan Chase & Co. in 1999.

Ms. Chang serves on the Board of Directors of Trickle Up and Girls Inc. She is the Senior Sponsor for J.P. Morgan’s Corporate and Investment Bank Women on the Move Network, the network for employees of Asian heritage (AsPIRE) and Nonprofit Board Service. She holds an M.P.A. from Princeton and serves on its External Advisory Council for the Center for Public Policy, and has a B.A. from Columbia from where she was awarded the John Jay award for professional achievement and serves on its Board of Visitors

CFS is an independent, nonpartisan think tank focused on financial markets – with business lines presently segmented into the future of finance, data and analytics, policy, and technology. The Center for Financial Stability was created before financial stability became widely recognized in the private sector as an essential factor in central banking and policy. CFS has successfully and consistently anticipated future financial market trends over the years with an ahead-of-their-time approach to the early identification of financial risks. CFS has developed data and analysis to improve the study of financial markets. CFS maintains a global reach with participants from over 187 of the 195 countries in the world. CFS prides itself on integrity, long-term relationships, and independence.

View the press release at http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/news/Chang_press_release_112420.pdf.

CFS Monetary Measures for October 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for October 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 28.3% in October 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.2% in September.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Oct20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Holzmann on “The Great Demographic Reversal”

Robert Holzmann (ECB Governing Council Member and Governor of the Austrian National Bank – OeNB) adds to the insightful comments received in response to Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan’s “The Great Demographic Reversal” CFS presentation recently distributed.

Robert notes that “there is a lot to be done, but a lot can be done.”  Two referenced papers from his days as an academic are offered:

1 – His ‘three-tiered life-cycle model’ by income groups suggests that the traditional model applies only to the middle-income subset of the population (see http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Holzmann_3_Tiered_Life_Cycle.pdf ).

2 – A new perspective on ageing and dynamic adjustment in the dependence ratio softens the economic impact of fears from the aging bubble ahead (see http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Holzmann_Optimistic_Dependency.pdf).

The original message and link to previous comments as well as Charles and Manoj’s slides are below.

Best regards,
Larry


———- Forwarded message ———
From: Lawrence Goodman <lgoodman@the-cfs.org>
Date: Fri, Oct 16, 2020 at 11:53 AM
Subject: Comments on The Great Demographic Reversal…

Two comments received regarding Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan’s “The Great Demographic Reversal” follow questions that surfaced during the CFS roundtable discussion.  They include 1) the role of technology and productivity as well as 2) the internationalization of the big demographic shift.

First, Hal Varian (Chief Economist, Google and Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley) offers a paper on advancing technology and automation vis-a-vis the impact of demographic forces on the supply of labor – https://voxeu.org/article/automation-versus-procreation-aka-bots-versus-tots.

Second, David Dodge (Senior Advisor, Bennett Jones and Former President, Bank of Canada) noted…
“I have been making the same point about the aging of the baby boom generation in Canada. This big cohort were big savers in the first two decades of this century. They will become big dis-savers from 2025 to 2045.”

The original message and link to slides are below.

Best regards,
Larry


—–Original Message—–
From: Lawrence Goodman <lgoodman@the-cfs.org>
Sent: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 12:31 PM
Subject: The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart and Pradhan)…

Last week, we hosted a roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan.

The Great Demographic Reversal is superb.  It addresses head-on demographic forces that will only gain in importance over time.  The book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalization will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality.  Charles and Manoj broadened the country-by-country demographic analysis by connecting many global threads and interactions among nations.

Please find their slides at
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/speeches/The_Great_Demographic_Reversal_CFS.pdf

Best regards,
Larry

CFS Monetary Measures for September 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for September 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.5% in September 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 29.7% in August.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Sep20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Comments on The Great Demographic Reversal (Varian and Dodge)

Two comments received regarding Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan’s “The Great Demographic Reversal” follow questions that surfaced during the CFS roundtable discussion. They include 1) the role of technology and productivity as well as 2) the internationalization of the big demographic shift.

First, Hal Varian (Chief Economist, Google and Emeritus Professor, UC Berkeley) offers a paper on advancing technology and automation vis-a-vis the impact of demographic forces on the supply of labor – https://voxeu.org/article/automation-versus-procreation-aka-bots-versus-tots.

Second, David Dodge (Senior Advisor, Bennett Jones and Former President, Bank of Canada) noted…
“I have been making the same point about the aging of the baby boom generation in Canada. This big cohort were big savers in the first two decades of this century. They will become big dis-savers from 2025 to 2045.”

The original message and link to slides are below.

—–Original Message—–
From: Lawrence Goodman lgoodman@the-cfs.org
Sent: Wednesday, October 14, 2020 12:31 PM
Subject: The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart and Pradhan)…

Last week, we hosted a roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan.

The Great Demographic Reversal is superb. It addresses head-on demographic forces that will only gain in importance over time. The book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalization will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality. Charles and Manoj broadened the country-by-country demographic analysis by connecting many global threads and interactions among nations.

Please find their slides at
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/speeches/The_Great_Demographic_Reversal_CFS.pdf

The Great Demographic Reversal (Goodhart and Pradhan)

Last week, we hosted a roundtable discussion with CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart and his co-author Manoj Pradhan.

The Great Demographic Reversal is superb.  It addresses head-on demographic forces that will only gain in importance over time.  The book proposes that the underlying forces of demography and globalization will shortly reverse three multi-decade global trends – it will raise inflation and interest rates, but lead to a pullback in inequality.  Charles and Manoj broadened the country-by-country demographic analysis by connecting many global threads and interactions among nations.

Please find their slides at
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/speeches/The_Great_Demographic_Reversal_CFS.pdf

CFS Monetary Measures for August 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for August 2020. CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 29.8% in August 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 30.8% in July.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Aug20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY
3) ECST –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

CFTC Advisory Committee Recommends Regulatory Actions to Address Climate Risk

A subcommittee of the CFTC Market Risk Advisory Committee (“MRAC”) recommended that U.S. regulators take action to address the risks that climate change poses to the U.S. financial system.

The recommendations came in a report, titled Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System, issued by the MRAC Climate-Related Market Risk Subcommittee. CFTC Commissioner Rostin Behnam, the sponsor of the MRAC, suggested the report could be used by “policymakers, regulators, and stakeholders” to begin a process of “taking thoughtful and intentional steps toward building a climate-resilient financial system that prepares our country for the decades to come.”

The report presents 53 recommendations to mitigate risks to financial markets posed by climate change and concludes, among other things, that:

climate change poses a “major risk to the stability of the U.S. financial system and to its ability to sustain the American economy”;

regulators “must” recognize that climate changes poses “serious emerging risks” and should move “urgently and decisively to measure, understand, and address these risks”;

existing law provides U.S. financial regulators with significant authority that could be used to begin addressing financial climate-related risk;

regulators can help promote the role of financial markets as providers of solutions to climate-related risks; and

financial innovation is required to manage climate risk and to facilitate the flow of capital in order to help “accelerate net-zero transition and increase economic opportunity.”

The report was approved 34-0 by the subcommittee’s membership. The CFTC also posted statements from participants on the subcommittee: (1) Cargill, (2) Citi, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley, (3) CME Group, (4) ConocoPhillips and (5) Vanguard.

LOFCHIE COMMENTARY

The job of the CFTC is to regulate markets in which market participants can agree to transfer risk between them. If there exists a sufficient number of market participants to create a liquid market in which they can buy and sell “climate risk,” such risk would be measured by these participants. Then the CFTC should do its best to regulate that market so that it operates efficiently and transparently. It is not the job of the CFTC, as a regulatory agency, to advocate as to carbon taxes (either for or against), or for that matter, local insurance markets, corporate disclosures, or corporate governance. That job is entrusted to other regulators. When regulators pursue these other objectives, they deviate from their mission and their real task.

With the NFL football season now upon us, it is appropriate for the CFTC to consider the words of the greatest football coach of all time: “Do Your Job.”

CFS Monetary Measures for July 2020

Today we release CFS monetary and financial measures for July 2020.  CFS Divisia M4, which is the broadest and most important measure of money, grew by 31.0% in July 2020 on a year-over-year basis versus 31.3% in June.

For Monetary and Financial Data Release Report:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm/Divisia_Jul20.pdf

For more information about the CFS Divisia indices and the data in Excel:
http://www.centerforfinancialstability.org/amfm_data.php

Bloomberg terminal users can access our monetary and financial statistics by any of the four options:

1) ALLX DIVM <GO>
2) ECST T DIVMM4IY <GO>
3) ECST <GO> –> ‘Monetary Sector’ –> ‘Money Supply’ –> Change Source in top right to ‘Center for Financial Stability’
4) ECST S US MONEY SUPPLY <GO> –> From source list on left, select ‘Center for Financial Stability’

Goodhart on “Deflation or Inflation”

CFS Advisory Board Member Charles Goodhart offers thoughts on “After Coronavirus: Deflation or Inflation?”  Charles is a member of the Financial Markets Group at the London School of Economics and a former member of Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

Topics include:

– Understanding the past.
– Assessing “low for longer” and “inflation is a monetary phenomenon?”
– Offering potential future pathways for prices.

For full remarks:
http://centerforfinancialstability.org/research/Goodhart_Deflation_Inflation_081420.pdf